Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
23%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021:

By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an elected official.

According to the Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress

In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.

Hattie Caraway became the first woman elected to the US Senate in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts126

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23%
Unlikely

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021:

By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the...

Last updated: 2024-05-09
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 126

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