Inspired by the endorsement of relationship markets by Manifold staff today (original title, i know).

Resolves as expected.

Background: @/IsaacKing/will-we-win-the-giant-game-of-chess

Resolves YES if any part of it seems likely to have been stolen or intentionally vandalized. (Moving the pieces around doesn't count, only actual damage to them.)

Resolves N/A if we...

Will resolve YES if any Manifold team member confirms that a DDoS attack occurred, a hacker verifiably announced that a DDoS happened, or other unenumerated scenarios that unambiguously confirmed.

Will resolve NO if otherwise.

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Republican nominating contest in the 2026 election to the United States House of Representatives from Florida's Sixth Congressional District. PredictIt reserves the...

The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:

With its imperial ambitions, Russia...

By may 2030

The Atlanta fed is currently forecasting a -2.8% GDP quarterly growth for Q1 2025.

This resolves YES if the Q1 GDP for the United States is broadly in-line with this estimate, which I shall define as -2% or less!

This resolves to the THIRD...

Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term. A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of...

@strutheo runs monthly polls. Earlier examples:

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-l8ygShIuzg (January)

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-OhzSUlSALE (February)

https://manifold..

Background Germany's government formation process typically involves complex coalition negotiations between multiple parties. After the 2021 federal election, it took about 2.5 months to form a government, while the 2017 process took nearly 6 months....

This market resolves YES if any living former US president (at most: Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton) makes a public statement explicitly accusing Donald Trump of stealing, rigging, or fraudulently manipulating the 2026 mid-term elections. The accusation...

Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a Neuralink patient regaining the ability to see using Neuralink's tech.

AGI will be determined from a consensus among manifold. (There are many markets regarding AGI)

Must be a large, internationally recognized art competition that historically only human artists have won. Examples could include the Turner Prize, the Archibald Prize, or similar high-profile competitions.

Criteria:

Humans can set up the initial...

This market is centered around whether the paid incentive schemes offered by Elon Musk's America PAC, which include cash payments for petition signatures, friend referrals, and million-dollar "giveaways," will ultimately be ruled illegal by a U.S....

The successful launch of India's Chandrayaan-3 moon mission has paved the way for the lunar lander and rover to explore the moon's surface. With the mission's focus on searching for water, the rover will discover a new source of water on the moon,...

Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup...

Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as Youtube, Netflix and Vimeo already have the...

Background Luigi Mangione is currently facing multiple charges, including first-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism and second-degree murder, for the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. On December 23, 2024, Mangione entered a not...