See: @/strutheo/will-a-dog-walk-on-mars-before-the

See: @/strutheo/in-what-year-will-a-dog-walk-on-mar

Robert Lewandowski is a Polish professional footballer, considered one of the best strikers in the world. He has won the UEFA Champions League once, during the 2019-2020 season with Bayern Munich, where he scored 15 goals. The question of whether he...

This question will resolves as Yes if the Disturbance Storm Time index reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.

Resolves yes if Ruben Amorim is the manager of Manchester United for the first game of the 25-26 Premier League season.

Will a country use at least one nuclear weapon against another country from now til 2035?

Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a dirty bomb will count towards a "yes" resolution.

increase = YES

decrease = NO

How we define a "single day change":

If it ended on say, Tuesday at 1000. And then at end of day Wednesday it is 1050 or higher, that is a >=5% change. Changes within a single day which aren't the closing price are...

In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner remarks that a tech company might buy an aluminum smelting company for its electricity contracts when discussing the need for immense power in AI training:

Probably the single...

By AI, we mean: any threat, disaster, or attack that is substantially of AI/ML origin, control, influence - or is at the heart of cause for declaring an emergency.

This could include a major data breach or loss of digital services due to an attack...

Do some searches :p

The East African Federation (Swahili: Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania...

In July 2023, the US House of Representatives will hold a hearing related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP).

The hearing will be held by the House's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs and will include...

Actual estimate: 33-50%

This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in...

One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains...

Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)

I am flying into Newark (from a western US city) on May 15 and flying out May 19. This resolves to YES if either of these flights arrive more than 2 hour late or are cancelled. I will use FlightAware arrival times to determine this. If I am rebooked...

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the total mana earned from unique trader bonuses, minus the 100 liquidity paid up front, and minus any mana returned from the pool upon resolution (and other sources adding/subtracting from the...

At the 2022 Australian federal election, the Liberal/National Coalition won 58 seats in the House of Representatives. If it wins 59 seats or more in the next federal election, this market will resolve to YES. If it wins 58 seats or fewer, this market...

Following his March 2025 Truth Social post labeling Tesla vandalism as "domestic terrorism" and threatening to send perpetrators to El Salvador, Donald Trump reignited debate over harsh penalties for property crime. If he is elected President in 2024...

This question resolves YES if Warren Buffett ceases to be CEO of Berkshire Hathaway before the end of 2025.

See also:

[markets]Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Warren Buffett's final day as CEO is December 31st, 2025, the...

On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced their "Superalignment" initiative:

https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment

Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.

While this is an incredibly...

This market gauges the potential long-term impact of AOH1996, on overall cancer survival rates. Unlike markets focusing on short-term results in clinical trials or regulatory approvals, this market probes the drug's real-world significance.

To...