Metaforecast

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 465

Will the Duolingo owl 'die' again before the end of 2028?

22%

Unlikely

He has canonically died once, being killed by a cyber truck for marketing purposes. Will they do it again?

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M210

Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?

38%

Unlikely

Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 28

Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?

75%

Likely

I.e., create a model of the human brain that is widely believed to have replicated human consciousness.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 17

Volume: M301

Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift be engaged by the end of March?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Will the darling celeb couple tie the knot? Resolves if either Kelce or Swift announce engagement, or a reputable news source does.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 32

Volume: M16k

Will Jacob Frey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $4.6k

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24?

26%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $848

Will another unofficial mana financial service/product ran by users be shut down by Manifold by EOY 2026?

93%

Very likely

Can be anything from loans, to mana laundering, to investment schemes

Ignoring the last one: Mana for Bitcoin Exchange

Will not resolve if something is made for the purpose of interfering with this market!

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 28

Volume: M4.7k

Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $5.4k

Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?

62%

Likely

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 61

Counter-Strike: Bebop vs BIG Academy - Map 1 Winner

59%

Bebop

42%

BIG Academy

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Bebop and BIG Academy in the CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #19 Play-In, initially scheduled for March 21 at 8:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Bebop" if Bebop win Map 1 against BIG...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $157

Will Adani Enterprises regain a total market cap of $50B before 2028?

27%

Unlikely

Adani Group is a conglomerate of companies headquartered in India. It is one of the largest business houses in India, with interests in diverse sectors such as ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, real estate, financial services, and defense....

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 64

Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?

11%

Unlikely

On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.

This market will resolve according to the next person...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $4.9k

Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?

52%

Even

49%

Odd

This market will resolve to "Odd" if the total combined kills by both teams in Map 2 is an odd number.

This market will resolve to "Even" if the total combined kills by both teams in Map 2 is an even number.

"Total combined kills" includes all...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $1

Will the Center for AI Policy reach their minimum funding goal by 6/16/2025?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

https://manifund.org/projects/support-caips-3-month-project-on-reducing-chem-bio-ai-risk-

Resolves YES if the sum of publicly announced donations (on Manifund or on the accompanying EA Forum & LessWrong posts) to the Center for AI Policy is greater...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M2.0k

Will the world human population be <6 Billion on December 26, 2025?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

I'll use many reliable sources to get an estimate.

Closes 1 day before.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 39

Volume: M5.4k

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

60%

About Even

This question is a duplicate of another question (https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202) scheduled to close later. It is based on a bet between Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor, found here: https://longbets.org/1/

This...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 63

Volume: M12k

Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?

51%

Odd

50%

Even

This market will resolve to "Odd" if the total combined kills by both teams in Map 1 is an odd number.

This market will resolve to "Even" if the total combined kills by both teams in Map 1 is an even number.

"Total combined kills" includes all...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $0

Will Mike Matheson win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 James Norris Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $553

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

50%

About Even

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $2.9k

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

22%

Unlikely

Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2028

Paper must either be available, or...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M1.4k