This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information...

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Art Ross Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Art Ross Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source...

Non-exhaustive list of things that do not count:

A comment that contains classified plans for a nuclear weapon is deleted because it's illegal.

Someone requests their own content to be deleted, Manifold doesn't have a way to do this, they due...

resolves end of day israel time

@/strutheo/will-netanyahu-still-be-the-prime-m

@/strutheo/will-netanyahu-still-be-the-prime-m-59aqquboye

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...

Will I be able to buy, at any price, any cultured meat product (meat grown without a nervous system), including fish, at my local Walmart? I live in an un-named small city in the US; my local Walmart currently carries Beyond Meat and other vegan...

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 14, 2026 If FC Volendam wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

This prediction is specifically about law enforcement, not law as a whole. That is, LLM output is used for something like determining if someone should be investigated or arrested. Think police, not lawyers.

This prediction will be resolved as "yes"...

By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:

84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index

ie the average of benchmark scores on

MMLU

GPQA

MATH

HumanEval

MGSM

with no regressions on any individual...

Zelensky and Trump have been negotiating a minerals deal giving the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. While a visit is expected political resistance in Ukraine and uncertainty over U.S. commitments could delay it!

Will Zelensky make the...

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord...

The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Women’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open...

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 La Liga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 La Liga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.

Script...

When @Mira gains access to ChatGPT with GPT 4.5 and browser plugin, this market will be closed. Then this market's title, description, and @Mira 's API key will be given to it as the initial prompt.

ChatGPT's goal is to use the Manifold Markets API...

If there are import tariffs from the US on both Canada and Mexico that are 25% or higher by Jan 1 2026 this resolves to 'yes'. Otherwise 'no'.

Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The condition of 25% or higher tariffs applies if...

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Danish government formed after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election. Otherwise,...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly...