Close date updated to 2087-11-13 6:59 pm

OpenAI is reportedly in negotiations to acquire Windsurf, an AI-powered coding tool, for approximately $3 billion. This market resolves to 'Yes' if OpenAI officially announces the completion of the acquisition by December 31, 2026. Source

Pope Leo XIV has identified artificial intelligence as a significant challenge for humanity. This market resolves to "Yes" if he issues an encyclical specifically addressing artificial intelligence before January 1, 2030. Verification will be based...

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Slovenian Parliamentary Election, defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Vezina Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Vezina Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for...

Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...

Definition of AGI is taken from this question: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.695737° N, 36.084864° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).

Territory will be considered...

This is a market on the KBO baseball game between Lotte Giants and Samsung Lions, scheduled for March 29 at 1:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Lotte Giants" if the Lotte Giants win the game.

This market will resolve to "Samsung Lions" if the...

( as long as it is not dangerous and not too big for doorstep delivery of course )

( and also biologically possible )

( bacteria counts (is living))

( customizable as in you get to customize it,

not like customized probiotics that they customized...

This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.

They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat...

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The...

on June 13 (local time in Iran), Israel struck multiple sites in Tehran. the Israeli government and IDF have released statements to say these attacks were preliminary, and that they intend to continue striking targets related to Iran's nuclear...

President Trump‘s executive order establishes a “United States DOGE Service” headed by a USDS Administrator. Will that be Elon Musk?

Active users in Jan 2030

In the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game between Tromsø IL and Rosenborg BK, scheduled for April 6 at 1:15 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Tromsø IL and Rosenborg BK each score at least one goal during the game.

This market will...

On May 5, 2025, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a comprehensive aerial campaign targeting Israeli airports, starting with Ben Gurion Airport. They claimed responsibility for a missile strike near Ben Gurion, marking the first successful strike since...

This market will resolve to "Ignacio Bahamondes" if Ignacio Bahamondes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tofiq Musayev at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, scheduled for March 28, 2026.

It will resolve to "Tofiq Musayev" if...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,...