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Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Friend AI wearable device before the end of May?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-27

Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos

[image]

Last updated: 2025-05-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.3k
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $928
Will Genoa be relegated from Serie A after the 2025-26 season?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Serie A after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by Serie A following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.3k
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.8k
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of North Korea and those of Japan, South Korea, and/or the US in Asia or at sea resulting in at least three fatalities before 1 November 2025?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

In October 2024, North Korea redefined South Korea as a "hostile state" while blowing up railway links between the two countries (France 24, War on the Rocks). Reports of North Korean troops entering Russia to join its fight in Ukraine have also...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 70
Forecasters: 44
Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?
73%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea.

The Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 112
Erudite Stock
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-14

NotSoErudite

Last updated: 2025-05-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 2.1k
Volume: M1205k
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
51%
Up
50%
Down
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 23 above $132?
67%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No..

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $791
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
52%
Cavaliers
48%
Pistons
Last updated: 2026-02-27

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 3 at 7:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
By the end of year 2025, will a counter-example to the Collatz Conjecture be provided that is less than a googolplex?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-26

Resolves to NO if no example is provided that is less than a googolplex at 12:00 01/01/2026.

Resolves to YES if an example is provided in the comments.

Last updated: 2025-04-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M894
Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 16.5
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-27

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for February 26 at 9:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Collin Gillespie scores more than 16.5 points during the game.

This market will resolve to "No" if Collin Gillespie scores 16.5 points or fewer...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in March 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $36k
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of EdgeX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $29k
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US..

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $48k
Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
94%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-02-27

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of...

Last updated: 2026-02-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $343k

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