Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2030.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 (this...

This resolves YES if, at the start of 2050, all humans were to suddenly vanish from the universe, automated factories would continue to produce and distribute items to other factories either forever or until interrupted by a major change in the...

This question will resolve to YES if Emmett attends Manifest 2025 at Lighthaven in person, and NO otherwise. Resolution is based on my judgement as to whether I attended or not, given that I'm Emmett.

Resolves if it happens or at the end of the current presidential term

Not to be confused with "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?", I mean the number 2,024.

This market resolves YES if Joe Biden, over his lifetime, wins 2,024 elections. Winning an election means winning any sort of vote that entitles you to a...

Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021

This question resolves YES if Bernie Sanders ceases to be a United States Senator for any reason before the end of 2025.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-bernie-sanders-cease-to-be-a-u)

If the manga gets to chapter 1401, this market will resolve to YES.

If the manga finishes before it reaches chapter 1401, this market will resolve to NO.

This resolves YES if and only if federal prosecutors formally indict AOC on one or more federal charges no later than February 1, 2029.

Increased from his 5% unconditional probability

May resolve NO early if Cyprus regains control of Northern Cyprus and Turkey gives up, making the likelihood of another country recognizing Northern Cyprus highly unlikely.

Markus Söder is Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), a party primarily active in Bavaria and the sister party to the large Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Together, these parties form a parliamentary group...

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate passes a qualifying bill to limit the President’s tariff authority, subsequent to the launch of this market on April 29, 2025, and by the End Date listed below.

A bill will be...

Resolves to YES if the last flight Zvi Mowshowitz takes in 2025 that he or his family is tasked with booking is booked in large part via Operator or another AI Agent.

Resolves to NO if this is not the case for the last such flight Zvi takes in 2025....

July 2024 unemployment data triggered the Sahm rule, which is an indicator that the US is in a recession.

This market resolves YES if the NBER declares, before August 2025 (US eastern time), that the US entered a recession that began or was ongoing...

All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' 5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030.

Also, don't miss Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024" (all gathered under one tag.

I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their...

The Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) publishes reports of Notifiable Data Breaches twice a year at https://www.oaic.gov.au/privacy/notifiable-data-breaches/notifiable-data-breaches-publications. These could be published up...

Barron's claims that:

"If 60 million Americans got the weight-loss drugs and 90% of them benefited, that could translate to over a 1% boost to U.S. GDP from the bigger labor force and higher productivity"

Reference:

https://www.barrons..

The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of Gaza hitherto outside its domain, before 2026.

Resolves NO on December 31st, 2025 otherwise.

See...

This guy is a classmate of mine and made usamo this year. I think he is orz.