This market is part of a post: Manifold for CBT

Resolves YES if I and another person agree that we're partners.

This question will resolve to 0% if Gaza is not de-facto shrunk to make room for a larger Israeli "buffer zone". Otherwise, it will resolve to 5 times the percentage of Gaza that is used to create such a territory. If more than 20% of Gaza's...

I'll define regularly as at least once per week for a couple weeks.

Jan 9, 1:39pm: If Destiny gets unbanned on Twitch will he regularly stream? → If Destiny gets unbanned on Twitch will he regularly stream on Twitch?

Per Wikipedia, a "Blue Ocean Event", is often defined as "having less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice"

Resolving according to Data Tools | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org) daily data

From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in...

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31336)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if the median price for "Democratic" is higher than the median price for...

Miles Brundage (former head of policy research at OpenAI) and Gary Marcus (NYU neuroscientist) have made a public bet about AI progress...

Details on Gary Marcus's Substack.

This market resolves however Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage resolve their...

There are no restrictions on the amount or kind of compute used to train the model. Question is about whether it will actually be done, not whether it will be possible in theory. If I judge the model to really be many specific models stuck together...

Implicit in the plans of the leading AGI companies, so it would seem, is achieving economic domination. If a single company were to dominate the world’s economy, that company would presumably hold a huge amount of power—think Incite, Westworld)...

This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the American Bullfrog, a species that was classified as Least Concern on the IUCN Red List in 2020. It will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by...

This market is about prediction #7 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction...

This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, the Federal Government is in what is described by media sources, determined by PredictIt to be reliable, as a full or partial government...

Resolves positively based on credible news report over a 1 month period that a deployed Siri or analogous programme is powered using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic.

Will he die mysteriously?

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

According to current IPCC estimates, unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2..

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Will any publicly traded company have market cap exceeding $5 Trillion at the end of 2025? As determined by the closing price at the last trading day of the year.

Current four most valuable companies as of the creation of this market (January 7th,...

Any or all

He will publicly say he's no longer working with DOGE or Trump, or publicly severely criticize Trump by 6/30/2026

Note that replication, here, means that the 'scientific community' accepts the finding as replicated and accurate. A single paper that claims to have the same results isn't sufficient.

The replication must also be of 'room temperature'...