Metaforecast

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

38%

Unlikely

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

One of the most important papers31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 239

Will Apple add another service to it’s Apple One subscription before Aug 13th 2025?

72%

Likely

Currently Apple offers 6 services inside it's Apple One Premier subscription, the most recent being Fitness+. Will they add another in next 2 years? Resolves YES if they include a new service, even if they combine one with another to make a new...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 23

Volume: M1.1k

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

68%

Likely

From a recent arXiv preprint,

We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 28

Volume: M2.9k

will Taylor swift release a new album before the end of August 2025

15%

Unlikely

Rumors suggest Taylor Swift is working on new material, with potential plans for a 2025 release. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Swift officially releases a new studio album (excluding re-recordings) on or before August 31, 2025, and 'No' otherwise....

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M397

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

72%

Likely

There have been multiple markets where the creator has incorrectly resolved their market for profit - most infamously Mr Stone and most recently Alex

In addition, it is difficult to ignore the profit incentive for even the most honorable market...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 40

Volume: M2.5k

Will the new fork of the Doctor Who wiki continue to exist one year from its creation?

97%

Virtually certain

As of yesterday, citing increasing frustrating with Fandom's heavy handed approach to running things, a contingent of the Doctor Who Wiki moderation team branched off a fork that has taken a large chunk of the editor population. Creating wiki forks...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 19

Volume: M3.0k

Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?

90%

Very likely

By "keyboard", touchscreen keyboards are included.

(I distinctly remember seeing another similar market here or on metaculus about google voice searches, but can't find it. Please link if you have it)

Resolution criteria:

After 2027 I'll research...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 42

Volume: M1.3k

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

38%

Unlikely

Defined as 100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 220

Volume: M149k

GTA 6 released on May 26, 2026?

34%

Unlikely

With recent delay to gta 6, will rockstar be able to realease it on the 26th?

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) on May 26, 2026. The release date will be verified through...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 16

Volume: M699

How many total vehicles will Rivian produce in 2025?

30%

At least 52,000, but fewer than 58,000

30%

At least 58,000, but fewer than 64,000

20%

At least 70,000, but fewer than 76,000

15%

At least 46,000, but fewer than 52,000

3%

At least 64,000, but fewer than 70,000

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 12

Forecasters: 6

Will India have a successful crewed moon landing before 2027?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

One of the key aims of India’s Human Spaceflight Programme is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 226

Will Bitcoin fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040?

76%

Likely

Bitcoin, the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has experienced significant price volatility throughout its history. Bitcoin has historically undergone several major corrections, including drops of more than 50% from previous all-time highs..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M980

Will the democratic party win the 2032 U.S. presidential election?

51%

About Even

Resolve Yes if the democratic party win the 2032 U.S. presidential election Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2032

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 26

Volume: M440

Referendum on ECHR membership or Human Rights Act before 2025

91%

No referendum before 2025

9%

UK votes to remain/keep before 2025

< 1%

UK votes to leave/abolish before 2025

★★☆☆☆

Smarkets

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

63%

Likely

Xi Jinping secured a historic 3rd term as China's general secretary. This 3rd term is set to last 5 years until 2027, when the 21st party congress takes place. Will Xi Jinping secure a 4th term and continue to lead China through the end of 2028...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 76

Volume: M13k

Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025

6%

Very unlikely

Set criteria:

Move boxes better

Can build houses better

Can hold manufacturing positions

Can load a dishwasher in an unfamiliar kitchen faster

Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 25

Volume: M1.5k

Whole primate brain connectome by 2030

14%

Unlikely

Inspired by this lesswrong post: Connectomics seems great from an AI x-risk perspective.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 16

Volume: M1.1k

At EOY 2025, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok?

59%

About Even

US politicians are once again making moves to ban or force divestment on TikTok in. Will it succeed this time, and if so when?

Some other questions ask if TikTok will "be banned" or "forced to change ownership", which describes an earlier part of...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 55

Volume: M8.3k

Will Ethereum(ETH)reach $2800 in may?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Ethereum (ETH) equals or exceeds $2,800 USD at any point between now and 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2025. The price will be determined based on the daily closing price reported by...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M1.9k

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $8183k

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

70%

Likely

The question will resolve to yes if I determine that substantial modifications are made to the 'FIDE Regulations on Transgender Chess Players’ Registration on FIDE Directory' by January 1, 2028.

https://handbook.fide..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 19

Volume: M692