This resolves yes if there is reasonable evidence (or my own experiments) that shows an LLM can reliably write specs/proofs for a deductive verifier for a reasonably complex program with no extra help (access to the verifier to try things and some...

BUY = GOOD SHORT = BAD

Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

This market will resolve to the first date (in ET) on which Paredex launches its governance token.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market...

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 3 at 7:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Pistons and Cavaliers combine to score 227 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 227, this market will resolve to...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Octra's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.

If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”.

If multiple...

See: @/strutheo/in-what-year-will-a-dog-walk-on-the

See: @/strutheo/will-a-dog-walk-on-the-moon-before

See: @/strutheo/will-a-dog-walk-on-the-moon-before-41f386ab705e

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of...

This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in the second half of 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.

The resolution sources are: 

The Yahoo Finance history...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second...

CNEOS 2014-01-08, also known as Interstellar Meteor 1 (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb and a student, Amir Siraj, published a preprint which argued—citing a US Department of...

Something like 23 and me.

"Spit in this tube / take this swab, and send it to us. We'll create a fertilized egg with your DNA replicated"

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...

If top-end professional programmers on Jan 1, 2027 are improved by learning to increase their typing speed on a keyboard, this will resolve YES.

I'm guessing most NO resolutions will involve the keyboard and typing being somewhat replaced as an...

The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeonggi Province.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed U.S. senator votes "Yea" on passage of the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026, during the first roll-call vote on passage in the U.S. Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada lowers interest rates in Q2 2025 (April, May, June). Past interest rate decisions are made available on the Bank of Canada's website.

Will the Bank of Canada cut rates in the second quarter of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly...