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Resolve Yes if the 3 month average google trend search interest for Gemini is higher than Chatgpt at the end of 2025
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=chatgpt,gemini&hl=en
Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...
OpenAI's best released model could be GPT-4, GPT-4o, or something else. It does not count as an OpenAI model unless it's made available to the public to try, and is known to be from OpenAI (e.g. the model can not be a secret, pseudonymous release)....
This market is a mirror of the long bet between Samo Burja and @ScottAlexander and will resolve according to the terms of that bet, as given on the Long Bets site: https://longbets.org/933/
Full question: "By 2043 there will be archaeological...
In a huge blow to the potential economic opportunity of generative AI, the US Copyright Office denied an application submitted for an AI generated art work on the grounds that “the nexus between the human mind and creative expression” is a crucial...
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2026, US Eastern Time, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024 or 2025. Resolves NO on 2027-01-01 otherwise.
Will everyone who is a living former or current president at the time of Joe Biden's funeral attend the funeral?
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-us-presidents-atten-ae14e3553047?r=QnJ1bm9K)
Due to recent federal government layoffs and potential relocations, I want to track whether home prices in Arlington, VA will decline by more than 15% over the next two years.
• Zillow home values will be used as the reference: Zillow Arlington...
Only resolves true if natural causes/old age prior to 1/20/2029. Outside intentional influence resolves as false.
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will...
This market is based on What's Coming in 2024 by the Discourse Magazine editorial team https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/whats-coming-in-2024
If the resolution is not obvious, the editorial team and author of the question will be asked to resolve...
Related Question on Metaculus:
The Bank Secrecy Act of 1970 was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to...
I'm currently 20 years old. I have no major health issues or family history of health issues. I generally don't participate in dangerous activities.
I love my life and want to stay alive for as long as possible. I could see myself wanting to live...
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if credible, peer-reviewed scientific publications or official statements from the USDA, University of Wisconsin, or Rotterdam University confirm that the circulating strain clade 2.3.4.4b of bird...
Resolves as YES if o4 is released before January 1st 2026.
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, o4 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following...
The Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk is officially nominated or appointed to a U.S. Cabinet position by June 30, 23:59 PST, 2025, as confirmed by a credible and verifiable source, such as an official government announcement or a major news...
Will a smartphone device be released under any brand owned or created by Elon Musk?
Resolves YES if a smartphone device is launched under any of the following brands:
SpaceX/Starlink
Tesla
X/Twitter
xAI
Neuralink
Resolves YES if Musk creates...
Half-time for the Copa America has been extended to 25 minutes to accommodate a performance by Shakira. Will there also be an official concert/performance during the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (which will also be hosted in the USA)?
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