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Catholic church recognizes AI souls by 2040?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Will resolve positively if by 2040 Catholic church officially reconizes that at least some AIs may have souls.

In the context of this question, AI includes any sort of entities executed on a traditional or quantum computer, including ML models, code...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M3.6k
Will Elon Musk be the first trillionare ?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

Will resolve as yes with in the month if his net worth hits 1 trillion USD (paper value).

End date is August 15th 2033 ... if no one/anyone else other than Elon (Satoshi doesn't count) becomes a trillionare this will resolve to no.

[image][image]

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 81
Volume: M16k
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Resolves Yes if quantum computers are used by at least 25% of Fortune 500 companies by 2030. The use does not have to be expensive, the companies just have to own and at least be attempting to utilize them.

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M11k
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 10, 12:00 PM ET and March 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10k
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 444
Volume: M360k
By the start of 2026, will a country named Russia be a member of the UN?
94%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-26

Resolving negatively if Russia is dissolved, united with any other country under any other name, renamed, or not a member of the UN.

I will use the English names of member states of the UN for resolution. If, by then, the United Nations no longer...

Last updated: 2025-05-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M2.0k
Will GPT-5 come out before 2027?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-06-10

If the date on which we get official generations from GPT-5 (this is not a typo) comes before 2027, I will resolve this positively.

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 71
Volume: M19k
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $182k
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-03-12

Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.1k
Will the Phoenix Suns finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes with the best regular-season record in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference standings.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the 2025–26 NBA...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.5k
Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18k
Will UK net migration be negative in any year up to 2040?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-09

This resolves true if in any year up to and including 2040, the net migration into the UK is negative, which means more people left than came to live in the UK.

Last updated: 2025-04-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M1.5k
Will Gary Marcus be revealed to be, and have always been, GPT-5?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-06

When an OpenAI model with model id matching one of the GPT-5 model ids is officially released to @Mira by start of March 2025, resolves to @Mira 's credence that Gary Marcus is, and has always been, GPT-5. My credence would currently round to NO.

If...

Last updated: 2025-05-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 68
Volume: M60k
Will Bologna score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

This market will resolve to the club that records the most total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $83
Will any state ban porn by 2030?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

A "ban" isn't just "restrictions," but "it is illegal to own, sell, make, and/or distribute pornography" in a state.

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.1k
Will the 48th President of the United States be a member of the Democratic party?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-20

(This question is using the numbering scheme that counts Grover Cleveland twice, e.g. Trump would be 45, Biden would be 46, etc.)

The president must be a member of the party at the time of inauguration.

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M238
Will Lex Fridman return from Russia before 2026?
90%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-04-01

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Lex Fridman has returned from Russia before January 1st 2026. I the context of this question, "returning from Russia" is defined as returning to a Western country.

If there is no evidence that Lex...

Last updated: 2025-04-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M529
Will RJ Barrett lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-12

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest points per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest points per-game average, this market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.8k
Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?
60%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Currently, cosmological simulations such as IllustrisTNG or Eagle are run by solving (magneto)hydrodynamical equations numerically. By the end of 2027 will at least one of the leading projects of the time (by number of citations and based on my...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M777
Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)
40%
About Even
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

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