Direct Action Everywhere recently updated their roadmap to animal liberation to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to...

From ‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth, Science, 02 August 2023:

Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur...

Analogous to the dissolution of the USSR, will the USA dissolve?

Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted. Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)

If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange...

Context: Lessons From a 20-Person Polycule

Will the word “polycule” be in any heading or subheading from the New York Times (opinion counts as well) in 2024?

Must be posted after time of market creation.

If the United States has a federal system for broadly levying taxes or fees on domestic carbon emissions by 2030, this market will resolve YES.

A Cap & Trade system would likely not meet these requirements and so would resolve NO.

This market will...

Resolves as YES if Kim Jong Un is the leader of North Korea on December 31st 2030.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-2c7e5cf84f34...

This market predicts whether Ukraine will regain control of Crimea by October 22, 2025. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, and its status remains a contentious issue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Crimea can only be...

This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.

Resolves YES if any inhabited Israeli settlements or outposts are present in the current territory of the Gaza Strip on 31 December 2035. The legality of these settlements or outposts under Israeli law does not matter for this question to resolve YES..

The threshold that the world's scientists determined as safe

[tweet]Resolves based on the time of conception, not birth. An adopted child would count, as would a surrogate. (In the case of adoption, resolves based on the time of legal adoption.)

While o1-preview outperformed previous models in math and programming, it wasn't preferred over GPT-4o in the "personal writing" domain:

[image]However, it seems like models that think before they respond should be able to improve their writing...

Through a press release or NYT / WAPO / WSJ, if Worldcoin reports having signed up a billion users before Jan. 1, 2026, this will resolve Yes then. Otherwise, this will resolve No on Jan. 1, 2026. If there is any dispute or doubt about the company...

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of the Moon before January 1st 2040 (and after 2023)

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d...

The next Australian Federal Election is expected between August 2024 and May 2025. A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the...

Donald Trump will be 83 years old, as he was born on June 14, 1946.

Joe Biden will be 86 years old, as he was born on November 20, 1942.

i.e. what the famed "Parker Square" was hoping to be. It must be a 3x3 square of distinct perfect square integers such that each row, column, and diagonal sums to the same number.

Inspired by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9dtpycbFSY, where the...

At the 2022 Australian federal election, the Liberal/National Coalition won 58 seats in the House of Representatives. If it wins 59 seats or more in the next federal election, this market will resolve to YES. If it wins 58 seats or fewer, this market...