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Will a large number of people turn blue before 2035?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-26

Resolves as YES if at last 100k people turn blue within the space of 100 days, while still being alive and otherwise healthy at the time when they become blue, before January 1st 2035.

This must have occurred either through a mechanism that did not...

Last updated: 2025-04-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.7k
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Resolves once one of them dies.

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 167
Volume: M41k
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ja Morant is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $69k
Will Matej Svancer (AUT) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Ski Big Air - Men's event at the time of the...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $126
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.3k
Will Meta (META) close at $640-$650 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Meta (META) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.0k
Will Wikileaks post another official leak before the end of 2025?
41%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-15

https://wikileaks.org/-Leaks-.html

The last one is from Dec 2018

Last updated: 2025-04-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M747
Will OpenAI's o1 model suggest 5 Manifold trades that will make a net profit overall?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-23

I will give it a big list of markets and explain how the site works. If the trades it suggests end up being profitable, this resolves YES. This resolves NO as soon as enough markets resolve to make it unprofitable. I will ask the model to make trades...

Last updated: 2025-03-23
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 68
Volume: M6.3k
Will marijuana be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 4/20?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-20

Changing from Schedule 1 to anything else of lower level will resolve this YES

Last updated: 2025-04-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M1.3k
Counter-Strike: HAVU vs ALLINNERS - Map 1 Winner
53%
HAVU
48%
ALLINNERS
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between HAVU and ALLINNERS in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A, scheduled for February 12 at 1:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "HAVU" if HAVU win Map 1 against ALLINNERS.

This market will...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $217
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
51%
Down
50%
Up
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $21k
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
75%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 100
I obtain an F-1 visa to study in the US this fall?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-17

This bet will be resolved if the outcome of my F-1 visa interview, set to happen sometime in July, is positive, and I am issued a visa to start my undergraduate degree at an American college.

The current situation around this bet involves potential...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.0k
Will Russia enter Borova by March 31?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Borova (49.37457173620971, 37.62233412539868) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Borova is shaded...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.2k
Will Kompany coach Bayern Munich for at least two full seasons?
74%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Vincent Kompany is Bayern Munich’s new coach. They signed a contract until 30th of June 2027.

The last Bayern coaches didn’t make it until the end of their second full season, even though their contracts were much longer than that. Will Vincent...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M2.8k
Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) normally requires clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a public health emergency (PHE) has been declared: for...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 257
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.3k
AS Monaco FC vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5
60%
Under
40%
Over
Last updated: 2026-02-12

In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between AS Monaco FC and FC Nantes, scheduled for February 13 at 2:45 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if AS Monaco FC and FC Nantes combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is less...

Last updated: 2026-02-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.7k
California Presidential Winner
98%
Democratic
2%
Republican
Last updated: 2024-11-01

Which party will win the popular vote in California at the 2024 US presidential election?

Last updated: 2024-11-01
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets
If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-14

Resolves N/A if Trump doesn't self-pardon, or if the resulting challenge isn't ruled on by the Supreme Court.

Last updated: 2025-05-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 57
Volume: M11k

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