From the Dwarkesh podcast:

Dwarkesh Patel 

It seems like you’ve enjoyed this recent trip to San Francisco? What would it take to get you to move here?

Gwern 

Yeah, it is mostly just money stopping me at this point. I probably should bite the...

Creator of Veritasium, Derek Muller, at the end of his video about AlphaFold (uploaded on February 10, 2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_fHJIYENdI) said this: "Even if AI doesn't advance beyond where it is today, we will be reaping the benefits...

Resolves YES if a general election occurs using any voting system which is not the traditional First Past the Post.

Apple reportedly wants to include blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch. Bloomberg wrote in April 2022 that the feature was "two years away from hitting the market and may slip until 2025."

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2034.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b...

Recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, as published quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and taking into account any revisions made in the following two quarterly releases.

This market resolves with...

Richard Ngo predicted this here.

Resolution Criterion: Ask Richard if he believes this has been passed in Jan 2026, resolve to his answer. Will ask him about comparison to the median reviewer for a recent ICLR. Question posed to Richard will address...

Resolves to yes if the US defeats China in a war before 2028.

I want to do an outdoors barbecue for my birthday, but as we all know the weather in London is finicky. There's no indoors place for me to host all the guests, so I need a way to figure out beforehand if the party is happening.

This market will be...

Resolves NA if NATO troops never enter the war.

Close date updated to 2025-01-01 6:59 pm

This question explores the plausible implausibility of modern diplomacy and avian ambition. Should a duck (real or symbolic) take office anywhere in the world before any form of toaster (conventional, smart, or rebellious) gains NATO membership—this...

This question asks if the inflation-adjusted US economy will have a year where it's 30% bigger than it has ever been before.

This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of...

im playing drunk monopoly right now tee hee :3 :3 :3 very subjective, bet with caution as im obviously incredibly drunk LMAO i think i wont! I generally have good discretion even when im silly moding also i obv need to be aware of it afterwards, if...

Locations must be open & operational by July 1, not just announced.

Existing, but now closed locations will not count.

Will go by the locations listed on this page: https://cosmcs.com/location

If the "CosMc's" name changes, the name in the...

I'm open to arguments about whether or not it should be disclosed beforehand.

End of sunday, pacific time

75% of notifications showing up within a few minutes of when they should, hour-late notifications or spotty notifications won't count

Closing as soon as the Earth's population is under 6 billion people or at the end of 2075.

Co-director counts, producer doesn't.

It's fine if it isn't an official one, but the movie needs to be mentioned on the Wikipedia page of Bond movies.

Resolves to NO if Christopher Nolan is dead, digital copies directing movies do not count in this...

Jesse Singal is a journalist and writer who has been a controversial figure on Bluesky.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Jesse Singal's account on Bluesky is banned before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM UTC.

The market will...

Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents. There must be at least one human opponent for it to count. The competition must have some...