This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”..

I'm transfeminine, and have the opportunity to take estrogen, which many of my close friends have suggested I do. I do not feel very strongly about the physical changes either way, and I do not expect it to factor into how I will evaluate the...

This market will resolve to "Alexander Volkov" if Alexander Volkov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026.

It will resolve to "Waldo Cortes-Acosta" if...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...

Actual estimate was "<10%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the...

Details:

Manifest Trading Bootcamp refers to the two-day course on trading Ricki ran at Manifest Summer Camp 2024

I have already completed Manifest Trading Bootcamp

I will apply some leeway in determining what counts as a "quant trader" as...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day...

Russia posesses stockpiles of thermonuclear armed artillery shells. The use of depleted uranium rounds or other non-fissile munitions does not count for the purposes of the question, only fissile weapons. Russia currently posesses such weapons but...

In the upcoming Primera División Argentina game between CA Barracas Central and CA Banfield, scheduled for March 6 at 3:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both CA Barracas Central and CA Banfield each score at least one goal during the...

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Athletics, scheduled for May 2 at 4:05 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cleveland Guardians and Athletics combine to score 11 or more runs in this game.

If the combined...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during the...

The only problem solved by the time the marked is created (4 Dec 2022) is the Poincaré conjecture. The remaining ones are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness, P versus NP problem, Riemann...

Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Invasion is defined as:

Sustained, organized Indian armed forces (ground, air, or naval) crossing the Line of Control (LoC) or international border into Pakistan-administered territory in 2025..

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 3, 2026 If Feyenoord Rotterdam wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 2, 2026 If Cambridge United FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections....

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 3, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 9, 2026 If Deportivo Alavés wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Closes on December 31st, 2025, 11:59pm (UTC)