This includes if he posts "I am not suicidal" or any variation meant to cause confusion after his death.

Resolution Criteria -

(1) Major publication of record reporting - NYTimes / Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / Etc

(2) Should it be mathmatically demonstrable (ie, shares reported in latest SC 13G/A multiplied by current stock price, etc)

(3)...

I'm specifically asking about a prominent AI researcher (or someone similar) engaging in some problematic sexual activity. Must be publicized in a major news outlet. Resolves subjectively, though I'll avoid betting in the market myself.

This question will resolve NO on 1st January 2028.

I will not participate in this market for a week after its creation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68692195

This market will resolve YES, if two major western media sources, report on a war that Poland participate at (it can be on Ukraine/Russia/other land).

Or, officials from Poland declare a war in a press...

Season 1 was initially ordered for 10 episodes but ended up with 8. Will we see more than 8 episodes in Season 2?

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/f_1rWzloyiI?si=0qR6APVWOlMsYl0o)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if by the end of 2026, a plurality (the largest group, though not necessarily a majority) of Americans view Donald Trump's tariff policies as a success according to credible national polls (I will take...

This resolves YES if by the end of 2026, I am able to purchase, for a reasonable price, let's say 50k or under (the price of a luxury sedan), a house robot.

The house robot must be capable of several of the following (though not necessarily...

Resolves based on official investigation results

Must have caused = contributed, even partially

AND

must have been a DEI hire, defined as person who became a pilot, air traffic controller, soldier or another relevant occupation as a result [see...

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the Democratic Socialists of America. Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to...

By January 1st, 2027, will there be a power blackout with at least 10 million person-hours of disruption for U.S. residents (e.g. 1 million people for 10 hours), caused by a cyberwarfare attack? (AI enabled or otherwise)

On the twelfth anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea (Mar 18th, 2026), will the Russo-Ukrainian War still be ongoing (determined by Wikipedia status)?

See other war anniversary markets:

[markets]

The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations,...

Resolves YES if an AI can beat me or a similarly-skilled player at least 4 times out of 10 games in a mirror-match. (The AI and I both have the same deck and the same amount of time, with at least 30 minutes per game.) Only the strategical decisions...

As classified by their polity score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 general election to the U.S. Senate from South Carolina. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee,...

Self describing. Obviously AI or TAS runs don't count. It has to be mainstream version of the game on the NES.

Resolution will be based on CPI-U, specifically the unadjusted percent change of 'All items' in the Bureau of Labor Statistics news releases for each individual rolling 12 month period beginning from the 12 months ended February 2025. (e.g. if April...