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➡️ check my other Bitcoin market and Tomek's Specials! 😎
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the conditions for a YES resolution:
Argentina accepts Bitcoin as payment for its...
Where European = any country in EU as of 2023.
Political Stability: Iran’s government faces mounting domestic challenges, including significant economic distress, recurring large-scale protests, and internal factional disputes.
External Tensions: Increasing military tensions with Israel, the U..
Singapore has removed the old law 377A that made homosexuality illegal. It also reaffirmed that marriage is defined under law as between a man and a woman, and that this can only be changed by parliament. Although conservative the country’s younger...
The all-time record for fastest pitch is 105.8 by Aroldis Chapman in 2010.
Resolves as YES if at least 1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2028.
Different number of robots:
@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-5e781221ca5f
@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e510db70b0a2...
This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria controlon or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is...
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 5 billion views on YouTube before January 1st 2026
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-9d632ac5c2f1
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-4bbb7ca2194b...
Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...
Update 2025-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria update:
If Nvidia receives any export licenses to China (even on a case-by-case basis), the market will resolve as No.
If Nvidia does not receive any export licenses to...
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If Reform merges with the Tories, the market will be canceled. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
If the parties merge before the election, the market...
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Marco Rubio sets foot in Cuba, excluding Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, in a publicly-announced visit that occurs subsequent to the launch of this market on March 18, 2026, and by the End Date listed...
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if:
Joe Biden is still alive when Donald Trump's current presidential term ends (normally January 20, 2029), or if Trump's presidency ends earlier for any reason (resignation, removal from office,...
LLMs refer to large language models, not other types of AI systems.
Inspired by
[tweet]And @SheikhAbdurRaheemAli 's reply
[tweet]Which I agree with.
By clear, it's meant that big companies will start to use these systems in production and not...
I used to love NASA NASA sucks how have they failed at everything
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Actual estimate: At or above 30%
The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent
Israel is widely understood to have 2 goals in its war with Iran: destroying Iran's nuclear program (primary) and regime change (secondary).
The market resolves to YES if either of the following are achieved by December 31, 2025:
Iran's nuclear...
According to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations,...
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