Resolves yes if one of the top two candidates (by popular vote) in a US presidential election does not identify as a member of either the Democratic or Republican party.

It will still resolve positively if the candidate is from some other party that...

Any use of the power of the president under Article II, Section 2 of the US Constitution to grant any form of clemency, whether pardons, partial pardons, commutations, remissions, respites, reprieves, amnesties etc., to Edward Snowden before the end...

The competitior doesn't need to launch by Jan 1 2026, he just needs to announce his ambitions to do so.

Canada uses a first-past-the-post electoral system where the party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons typically forms the government. This system can sometimes lead to a discrepancy between the popular vote winner and the party that...

The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the world record for breath holding), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.

That busted other previous...

This market will resolve when either Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin is pronounced dead, or on 1st January 2030 if both remain alive.

Apr 1, 11:06pm: In the unlikely event that both men are still alive on 1st January 2030, the market will be resolved as...

It need to be unintented by the game designers.

Related markets:

marketsMar 2, 4:34pm: Will a NPC of a major video game realize it is a NPC before 2030? → Will a NPC of a major video game realize they are a NPC before 2030?

Resolves as YES if at least 10 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.

Different number of robots:

@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86

@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215...

in the sense of repurposing at least 50% its mass-energy to make machines

https://unstablerontology.substack.com/p/on-eating-the-sun

From https://manifold.markets/L/if-a-civil-war-is-prevented-in-the

Resolves as per @L's best judgement. If I'm unable to get a response from @L within 2 weeks of close, I will resolve according my best judgement of what @L would have answered.

Today, the famous Copenhagen historic stock exchange building went up in flames. It's still burning as I write this market.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68824189

Will they decide to rebuild it? This market resolves to YES if construction...

Vote YES if you think Yamato will be with the crew in person when Luffy finds the One Piece.

Vote NO if you think Yamato will still be in wano or somewhere else other than with the crew and Luffy, when Luffy finds the One Piece.

Unlike most other industrialized nations, Israel has never iodized its salt on a National level, and has a widespread iodine deficiency. Israel's Health Ministry has a page on the iodine issue, and the iodine issue in Israel has received substantial...

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Evaluated YES if one of the leading AI services companies (Open AI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, or sector peer) employs KANs in a public facing service by Jan 1 2026.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.19756

Resolves YES if by the end of 2029 there's a $1b company focused on manufacturing UV lights; doesn't have to be the only thing it makes but the company's success has to be founded on UV lights. (UV lights are gaining traction for use in air...

In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a phase 2 trial of its interesting drug bimagrumab in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks,...

According to statistics gathered from the American Cancer Society (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the CDC's data in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000...

This question resolves True if there is a 12 month period between January 2025 and January 2029 during which inflation exceeds 10%