BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to "Yes" if Kamala D. Harris is declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the Electoral College and certified by Congress. If she is not, it resolves to "No."

Resolution Date & Time: Early...

This question will resolve as YES if a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8.5 or greater occurs in the Pacific Ring of Fire before December 31, 2025, as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) or a similar authoritative source.

The...

Resolves YES if a service or API exists before 2026 which does the following:

You upload text document(s) for fine-tuning

The service does full parameter fine-tuning on Llama 3.1 405B, without you having to rent GPUs

You can download the...

@Austin is a believing Catholic. Will this remain the case? I'll ask him at market close.

Resolves NO if he reports keeping to Catholic rituals / behavior standards but no longer believing in literal God.

(I asked for and received Austin's...

Will Trump win one or more of these states; California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.

Basketball is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The NBA is the largest professional league in the world.

Whilst making predictions for 2025 Jeff Davidson predicts that the height of the rim will be raised "beyond the year 2025, but not...

Physics, astronomy, cosmology and related areas are increasingly relying on machine learning. Most papers get away with using black box methods with little effort towards interpretability.

By the end of 2025 will the situation radically change so...

Murray Fisher and Pete Malinowski created the Billion Oyster Project in 2014 to restore oysters to New York Harbor. These oysters offer many ecosystem services; they can help decontaminate waters of certain pollutants, act as storm-surge barriers,...

Gallup polls Americans on their confidence in American institutions, publishing results every summer (see 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021).

The number of Americans who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the Supreme Court has declined...

Will resolve to YES IFF China institutes some type of naval blockade against Taiwan between the start of this market and before the end of 2025.

Resolves Yes if a research paper that used Manifold data have 100 google scholar citations by the end of 2025

To quality for having used Manifold data, at least 100 questions from Manifold should have been used for the research paper.

Resolves No...

Just for being trans includes:

Asserting a gender identity or gender related medical need in any context

Priorly legal political or free speech activity centered around trans issues

Using or possessing hormones

Obtaining or pursuing surgery, or...

The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.

Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent...

https://adventofcode.com

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a large-scale cyberattack targeting either Iran or Israel occurs between June 13, 2025, and August 31, 2025. A "large-scale cyberattack" is defined as an incident that:

Significantly disrupts...

Partial year resolves YES

The UK Labour Party set an ambitious target of achieving the highest sustained economic growth within the G7 in its manifesto prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

In an interview from the 27th of June, 2024, the Labour...

Resolves YES if Donald Trump dies by homicide while being president (during the term beginning 1/20/2025.)

Resolves NO if Donald Trump finishes his time in office alive OR dies of any cause while president excluding homicide.

Clarifications:

If...

EG give it a good movie script, and it generates a movie more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as long as it's pretty good.

Script...

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 1, 2025, there is credible evidence of Indian military forces crossing into Pakistani territory with the intent to engage in combat operations. The primary source for verification...