Should Canada ban X and Tesla? Why calls are growing (Global News):

University of Waterloo political scientist Emmett Macfarlane has called on the federal government to go much further. In a Jan. 21 blog post, he argued that Ottawa should consider...

Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:

https://ohss.dhs..

This market will resolve to YES if Donald J. Trump is sworn in to a third term as President Of The United States before February 1 2029.

Sep 14, 9:26pm: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a third term as the US President? → Will Donald Trump be...

Meaning, as an accelerator for early stage technology startups.

Resolves YES if Russia annexes or occupies territory that was previously controlled by Georgia or Georgia suffers over 100 casualties due to Russian military action.

Context:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

https://en.wikipedia..

When this market resolves YES:

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708

will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?

Resolves to Manifold poll. Will be open for a week and boosted until...

This market explores the probability of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a noted environmental lawyer, author, and activist who has declared his candidacy for the presidential race in 2024, being alive at the end of 31 December 2026. Given Kennedy's public...

Resolves YES iff any of the following happen:

usaco plat (gold right now)

usapho qual (got a 13, cutoff was 14)

green mop or higher

old: (turned into green mop goal)

mop qual next year but not this year

i mop qual this year and am in a high...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2036.

This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or...

Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market...

2026 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337

In line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can...

By 2040, will there be strong evidence of life originating on any moon, asteroid, or planet (other than Earth) in our solar system? This includes life that is non-cellular (e.g., a self-supporting virus), that is extinct (e.g. fossils), and that uses...

Closes on December 31st, 2025, 11:59pm (UTC)

Market resolves to YES if William does not abdicate or the monarchy is not abolished prior to the death of King Charles III.

Elon Musk has been nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in promoting free speech. The nomination was proposed by Branko Grims, a Slovenian Member of the European Parliament, highlighting Musk's global advocacy.

Update 2025-01-29...

In 2022, the Chinese Government signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands.

Certain governments, most especially Australia, but also the United States, have concerns that this pact will lead to a full Chinese military base in the region.

One...

Original title: Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024, then regain it in 2026?

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund Electronic partogram on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a...