The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/

This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people...

This question resolves YES if, at any time before 2039, a sitting US Governor, Senator, President, or Vice President:

Is openly is engaged in multiple relationships, with the consent of all parties involved (ie: no cheating)

These relationships are...

This question will resolve to YES if in the year 2100 there is one connected society comprising the inhabitants of Earth that satisfies the definition of a "utopia" as specified in this question, all clearly defined large sub-units (for example,...

In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)

There is a companion question BTC...

*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the Forecasting Research Institute titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their...

conditional on that i am working in 10 years.

i've been working for the last ~6 months, and have been working weekends for all of them.

background: i told @SirSalty and @NZ that i hate how people don't work on weekends, and they said "we'll see how...

This question will resolve YES if by 2031, Ryan Wesley Routh is charged and convicted of any, “attempted assassination,“attempted murder,” or conspiracy to murder statute in Florida, or federally (USA), for his actions on 9/15/24, and NO otherwise..

The Senate is allowed to add as many amendments as they want without affecting resolution

Will Israel annex any part of the Gaza strip by the end of 2025?

Annexation implies incorporating the area into its territory.

Any one of the following three conditions are sufficient for the area to be considered annexed:

An official Israeli...

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2080, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a...

A lunar base means any infrastructure on the moon designed to remain there permanently and support human habitation. In order for this question to resolve positivly, such a base must be complete enough that humans could live there for a few weeks,...

Thoughts?

Sibelco is basically the world's only supplier of ultra-pure quartz. Their mining and processing facilities for ultra-pure quartz are located in Spruce Pine, NC, which has experienced flooding as a result of Hurricane Helene. The ultra-pure quartz...

@TobiasVyseri is looking for a new job. She's above average in terms of actual usefulness, but below average in terms of ability to portray herself as such. So finding a decent job has been a challenge.

Her primary training is as a graphic designer...

Resolves yes if he publically claims to have a tulpa/headmate or defines himself as a plural system before January 1st 2026. I won't decide based on rumours and if it's ambiguous will resolve it no.

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu will be up for reelection in 2025. Will she be reelected?

Boston last did not reelect an incumbent mayor in 1949.

Resolves N/A if she does not run, but resolves NO if she drops out after declaring that she is running.

Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school...

Details in this blog post. Barnett wins if:

By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

[markets]

Resolves Yes if there are credible evidence or credible news media reporting that the two have met in person in year 2027

I created a market some time ago, where I showed some projections on the growth of solar panel installations.

Assuming that the global solar panel installations will grow at a compound 50% rate, we'll install over 8713 GW in 2030. At the time of...