https://twitter.com/AgainstMalaria/status/1631307793000026114

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026.

This market will...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the...

https://manifold.markets/AUTOMATA/will-the-usa-become-a-province-of-p

This question (the "parent market") seems suspicious.

This market will resolve NO if, as of the time this market closes (2 months after the parent market closes):

The parent...

Curious if the martial law attempt will indirectly increase fertility, by potential mechanisms like sense of national crisis or political gender reconciliation.

Source will be https://www.index.go.kr/unify/idx-info.do?pop=1&idxCd=5061

Number to...

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this...

Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 17, 2026 If Fulham FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game...

For context, see this tweet.

Within the next few months, I'm going to be releasing an episode with by far my biggest guest yet.

If you're interesting in sponsoring it, shoot me an email at sponsor@dwarkeshpatel.com

Resolution

See:...

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethena (ENA/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 15:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified...

On December 2022, Argentina’s Vice-President and former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, was sentenced to six years in prison and given a lifelong ban on holding public office after being found guilty in a $1bn fraud case related to public...

After the OpenAI board temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous...

Our protagonist, Euclid, has devised a scheme to beat the house in Math World Las Vegas:

He bets a dollar, double-or-nothing with even odds, on red in roulette. If he wins, great, he's done. If he loses, he doubles his previous bet and repeats...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloodborne

Resolves YES on any official form of Bloodborne released on PC before 2026, whether port, remake, remaster, or similar. Resolves NO if 2026 begins and it hasn't happened.

A numbered sequel, e.g. 'Bloodborne...

The original wager for this question appeared here and here on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.

Caplan writes:

The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:

Between 1998 and 2013,...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The...