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Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-10

This includes

Any dramatic change to the governing apparatus at the federal level: extending presidential terms, prosecution of political enemies in some dramatic form, changing how elections are held, a dramatic change in state power

A crisis...

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M554
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.5k
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that the listed individual previously visited Little St. James by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-03-15?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-03-13

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 15, 2026 If SC Internacional wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.8k
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
51%
Down
50%
Up
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-03

https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933

[image]The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not...

Last updated: 2025-03-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 29
Volume: M15k
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Pluto, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2045. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Pluto must occur within a distance of no more than 1...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.5k
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve according to how much "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www..

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $124k
Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides. This was the second time in as many years that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32
Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election

20.5% of the votes in 2022.

If 20.5% this resolves NO.

If Sweden Democrats have changed name, but are the same party, the result still counts.

If Sweden Democrats are not part of the...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M2.7k
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through 2025?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through 2025 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues). Resolves YES otherwise.

Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023....

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M1.3k
Will the upcoming Minecraft movie be significantly changed or delayed in response to criticism?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

When the Sonic movie trailers were first released, the criticism about the design was constant, eventually leading to this tweet:

[tweet]This market resolves YES if something meaningfully similar happens to "A Minecraft Movie". Things that would...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M13k
Will technology related to ChatGPT significantly alter the role of Student Essays in US College Admissions by 2026?
60%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-29

This concerns the Fall 2026 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2025 for Early Decision, and January/February 2026 for Regular Decision.

Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2026, at least one of those things...

Last updated: 2025-03-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M1.2k
Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?
94%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.6k
Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?
  • Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?
  • If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which...
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 637
Will I get a girlfriend at MOP 2025?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Yes if I start dating a 2025 mopper between the start of mop and one month after the end of mop. Me and the other person both have to agree that we're dating. The other person must identify as female.

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M3.0k
Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

New START is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026.

We ask a pair of questions about the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will HEROIC win PGL Wallachia Season 7?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-13

This market will resolve according to the winner of the PGL Wallachia Season 7 tournament, currently scheduled for March 7 to March 15, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after March 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been...

Last updated: 2026-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.1k
Will I live to be more than 1 billion years old?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-20

A few hundred years, or a few hundred thousand years? Pffft... I seek to live on cosmological timescales!

Resolves as "Yes" if I live to see my 1 billionth birthday, else it will resolve no. The following will count towards a "Yes" and/or "Still...

Last updated: 2025-03-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M775

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