Inspired by

(https://manifold.markets/embed/DanMan314/if-the-netherlands-has-a-referendum)

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

An end to the Israel Hamas war will be the end date provided by Wikipedia.

[image]I saw the post above and found it very interesting. It would be awesome if we can talk with Animals in some way in the next years. I will be the judge to whether what exists in 2035 qualifies as being able to talk with Animals.

[tweet]

I may bet on this market.

Resolves YES if Barry Bonds, the greatest baseball player of all time statistically, is admitted to the MLB Hall of Fame during his lifetime. Resolves NO if not.

Aug 8, 10:33am:

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/tHCwryURvZA)[markets]

The secretary of the US Air Force says that China is preparing for war with the US, but that war is not inevitable. Will there be an armed conflict between the US and China before the end of the decade?

https://thehill..

The status of these two markets:

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-trump-spend-any-time-in-prison

imply that the market has a substantial chunk of its probability mass on Trump...

This market is part of a post: Manifold for CBT

Resolves YES if I and another person agree that we're partners.

For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a national crisis that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.

Venezuelan President...

Resolves to Yes if Gretchen Whitmer is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

On June 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation banning nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States, effective June 9, 2025. This market predicts whether any player selected for the FIFA Club World Cup, scheduled from...

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2036.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b...

Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).

Examples of Flash Crashes were the 2010 drop of 1,000 points...

Sam Altman is quoted as saying: "“Every college student should learn to train a GPT-2… not the most important thing but I bet in 2 years that’s something every Harvard freshman will have to do”

For fun: Will this prediction hold up? We'll give them...

Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this

Permanent Stock for h3h3Productions, Ethan Klein.

This is Kevin's high-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.

Market will resolve to yes if a crypto memecoin created in 2025 reaches $100 billion in market cap by the end of the year, even briefly. Otherwise, it...

Barcelona will play with their weakest squad ever in this season

Rumors suggest Taylor Swift is working on new material, with potential plans for a 2025 release. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Swift officially releases a new studio album (excluding re-recordings) on or before August 31, 2025, and 'No' otherwise....

Resolves yes if greater than or equal to 1 person who voted for Trump (in either election) is deported from the United States before 2028