Metaforecast

Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2028?

65%

Likely

Resolves as YES if Vladimir Putin is the leader of Russia on December 31st 2028

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-1d6af8492e40

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-c5fc19dfa944...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 22

Volume: M2.1k

Before Jan 1, 2027, US home prices will at some point be 20% lower than today, as measured by Case Schiller index

19%

Unlikely

As of October, 2023, the Case Schiller index is at 310. At some point in the next 3+ years, before Jan 1, 2027, US home prices will decline by 20% and the index will be less than 250.

Reference:

https://www.spglobal..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M1.2k

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

17%

Unlikely

The method used could be anything, for example scanning the brain and decoding brain waves into language and/or images using machine learning.

Experimentally, we should be able to do things like predict someone's internal monologue with only minor...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 137

Volume: M15k

Will the US Congress pass legislation creating a regulatory framework for stablecoins by the end of 2025?

55%

About Even

This question will resolve YES if the US Congress passes any legislation into law that creates or builds upon a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US; otherwise the market resolves NO. Passing the GENIUS Act and/or STABLE Act will...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M1.1k

Will Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace treaty by the end of 2030?

71%

Likely

Resolves YES if such treaty is signed and (if needed) ratified before 2031 by both countries and no armed conflict happens before or for two years after that.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 14

Volume: M5.8k

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

49%

About Even

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 78

Volume: M7.4k

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 31 March 2025?

37%

At least 6,000, but less than 6,250

23%

At least 6,250, but less than 6,500

21%

At least 5,750, but less than 6,000

8%

At least 5,500, but less than 5,750

5%

At least 6,500, but less than 6,750

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 138

Forecasters: 43

Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳

17%

Unlikely

Will I have a real conversation with the massive marine mammal that both I and it can understand? A human big-money trader on Manifold does not count!

The most likely way for this to happen if people successfully decode the whale language with llms.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 76

Volume: M14k

Will Optimus be used on the Optimus assembly line before the end of 2025?

20%

Unlikely

Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Actual integration: Optimus must be fully integrated and part of the real assembly line process, not just used for demonstrations or proofs of concept. (AI summary of creator comment)

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 19

Volume: M2.1k

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

82%

Likely

Will AI smart glasses be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027 (Dec 31 2026)?

Popular: 1M units sold across all producers

(For comparison: Apple Watch sold 1M units on day 1)

Requirement: Glasses must integrate AI voice assistance to be...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 44

Volume: M3.7k

Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?

17%

Unlikely

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026

The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 21

Volume: M3.2k

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Unlikely

Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a long series of disputes between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 48

Will Gold 🪙🥇🪙🪙 Bars be a better investment than cryptocurrency in the next 2.5 to 5 years from now ?!

36%

Unlikely

Gold Bars over Cryptocurrency ????? 5 years from now !? Natural resources over Man made Currency 💲💵 🪙🪙🪙🪙🪙

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 27

Volume: M3.2k

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

85%

Likely

AUKUS is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced in September 2021. The agreement includes provisions for the U.S. and UK to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines and collaborate...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 8

Volume: M1.7k

Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2025?

96%

Very likely

Will Disney+ completely absorb the service Hulu, or will it otherwise be discontinued?

Resolves to yes if you can still download and log into the standalone Hulu app on iOS (App Store), iPadOS (App Store), Android (Google Play), Apple TV (tvOS App...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M4.3k

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

32%

Unlikely

To resolve yes:

Has to be for a continuous 18-month period (if I'm partway at close then I will extend it until the 18-month period/I quit).

Has to be 95% of the time (I abide by the diet for 520/547 days of the 18-month period. And on any days I...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 14

Volume: M997

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

4%

Very unlikely

The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations who have made outstanding contributions to promoting peace. Donald Trump has been nominated for the 2025 prize by multiple individuals,...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 103

Volume: M107k

will I vibe with a community found through this market within a year?

35%

Unlikely

Yes, this amounts to a call for help networking ad.

Resolves YES if I join an IM community (e.g. Discord, Slack, Line) through this market (or through a DM related to this market) and I feel at home there within a year. 'Feeling at home' is a...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M578

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

20%

Unlikely

In October 2022, the US instituted new, wide-ranging export controls aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 90

Will Dwarkesh Patel interview Emmanuel Macron within a month?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolves YES if Macron gives an interview to Dwarkesh Patel within the next month.

[tweet]

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M989

Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?

14%

Unlikely

See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th

See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ

See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-trump-co

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 172

Volume: M43k