[image]This market will resolve YES, if at any 2025 poll published by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the trust in president Zelenskyy falls below 50%

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Must be an intentional place where sovereign individuals can earn money (including printing there own crypto) for evaluating their confidence and importance of propositions that are used to align AI constitutions (and a more general constitution of...

This market resolves yes if any part of Canadian territory becomes American territory before 12/31/2026

Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Claim vs. Action:

A sovereignty claim is an assertion of rights.

Annexation is the...

This market will resolve to Yes if the primary cause of the Air India Flight 171 crash is:

Incorrect fuel mix

A fail in the fuel supply or fuel pump or similar such system

Improper fuelling of the aircraft before takeoff

Accidental cutoff of the...

Fidesz-KDNP, a coalition of parties lead by Orbán Viktor controls 135 of 199 seats of the Hungarian National Assembly. This corresponds to (a record high) ~54% of ballots supporting Fidesz-KDNP directly or its constituency representative..

Resolves YES if at any point before the close date, the US dollar is Argentina's main legally-accepted currency.

There will be a 2025 Dutch general election (for the Tweede Kamer). Will Elon Musk get materially involved in attempting to influence the outcome?

To resolve as "Yes" this requires more than just a couple of tweets or quotes. It might be, for...

[image]This market resolves YES if, in my interpretation, the United States federal government has "crushed" OpenAI. It resolves NO once Elon Musk has not been a government employee (in a position such as DOGE) for a month.

I will not trade on this...

There is a lot of material out there and as such we cannot say "commonplace" as a % of all the material out there. We will conduct a poll where we ask users to rate how commonly they interact with AI-generated pornography and resolve this question to...

Same as this market, but for AI that gets gold on the 2023, 2024, 2025, or 2026 IMO.

@/strutheo/will-taco-bell-offer-a-labgrown-cul-m9dcdle6lv

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul

@/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown-1aa60a8ed5ce

@/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown

This market is open to everyone, but it primarily targets those who frequently bet on NO or (like myself) on YES.

You can bet as you want; this is optional, but the fun of this market is to choose a side, either Something Happens or Nothing Ever...

This question resolves YES if JD Vance resigns as US Vice President before the end of Donald Trump's second presidential term on 20 Jan 2029.

This question resolves NO on 21 Jan 2029 if JD Vance has not resigned as Vice President. This question may...

At end of Summer 2025, I will be reflecting, did the unrest occur? Maybe many riots in the cities, some looting here/there and the couple of fires. Perhaps the windows are being boarded up on the business. 🥵 Similar to the 2020, it would be a yes...

Direct Action Everywhere recently updated their roadmap to animal liberation to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to...

If perplexity on Common Crawl is not available for models, I will use other benchmarks as a surrogate. This will inherently be a judgement process. If a model has not been announced by EOY 2025 and no benchmarks have been posted publicly, it will not...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• When will a technology replace screens?

In the promo video of Meta Platforms Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people.

• Facebook in its...

Something that solves this problem easily:

https://discuss.python.org/t/partial-string-matches-in-structural-pattern-matching/29960

I’d love to be able to use partial string matches:

match text: case "prefix_" + cmd: # checking prefix ...

If a proper study is conducted, will resolve based on that. Otherwise, the resolver will attempt collect data to resolve the market. Resolution will be based on the informed judgement of the resolver about what best fits the intent. Resolver is me by...

The question Date first AGI is publicly known. asks When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?.

Today, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other...

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...