This question resolves to yes if Tesla has delivered Tesla Bots to customers and you can buy one on the Tesla website before the end of 2025.

Edit: It doesn't have to be humanoid, any robot designed to perform a variety of tasks will qualify.

It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.

If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then...

Resolves Yes if there are credible evidence or credible news media reporting that the two have met in person in year 2025

Resolved as Yes if Gareth Southgate gets a head coach/manager job with a Premier League team on or before May 25, 2025 (the last matchday of the season).

Actual estimate: ~2%

I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk...

This question resolves True if there is a 12 month period between January 2025 and January 2029 during which inflation exceeds 10%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the total mana earned from unique trader bonuses, minus the 100 liquidity paid up front, and minus any mana returned from the pool upon resolution (and other sources adding/subtracting from the...

Resolution source: https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2025

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This market will resolve based on whether our ability to predict earthquakes is surprisingly good.

Given the subjective nature of this assessment, I won't bet.

https://gizmodo.com/doj-considering-breaking-up-google-after-monopoly-ruling-report-2000486766

Google was recently found by a federal judge to have a monopoly in the search market. The US Department of Justice is reportedly considering splitting the...

Will wildfires in Israel cause any deaths within the coming two weeks?

Background: As of the creation of this market there have been intense wildfires in the Jerusalem area (Eshtaol, Latrun) since the morning of April 30th. So far there have been no...

Resolves yes if the WHO states that there is conclusive evidence that microplastics exposure reduces human fertility before 01.01.2026. This needs to be stated as fact, so things like "some studies suggest", "might cause", ... don't count (see e.g....

Canada Fertility Rate 1950-2023 | MacroTrends

Literally even 0.01 increase counts for me.

This market predicts whether Dr. Anthony Fauci will be arrested on charges related to crimes against humanity before October 19, 2025. Resolution will be based on credible news reports from major outlets such as the Associated Press or Reuters...

Resolves YES if, after the next Australian federal election (likely in late 2025), the party or coalition that wins government, i.e. supplies the Prime Minister, also has an outright majority in the Senate.

For the purposes of this question, only...

Resolves once the answer is publicly known. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80 Mar 9,

This is referring to base 10, and counting starts after the decimal point. (e.g. "1" is the first digit, "4" is the second, etc.)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic officially announce and complete the relocation of their headquarters from the UK or the US to another country before the end of 2026. The relocation must be officially...

i.e. will Trump attempt to subvert the two-term limit? Must be a serious attempt, e.g. announcing he will run for re-election in 2028 or initiating some legal proceedings to repeal the 22nd. Idle wondering or trolling doesn't count.

Resolves N/A if...

Will resolve 'na' if Krantz fails to hire Danny Sheehan as his attorney by 2030.

Will resolve 'yes' if either Krantz or Danny win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Will resolve 'no' if Krantz hires Danny and neither win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2050.

Changing from Schedule 1 to anything else of lower level will resolve this YES