Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)

Will Trump and Elon reconcile in 2025?

Signs of reconciliation are:

Making a public apology.

Having a friendly meeting.

Making public positive statements about each other (like they did before the "breakup").

Reconciliation must be from both...

Actual estimate: ~10%

Will macOS 16 (most likely announced at WWDC2025) drop support for all intel based Mac’s?

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.

The price of bitcoins has...

Ending this market in 2030, as the latest IRB report estimates this as the launch date.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-sample-return-budget-and-schedule-unrealistic-independent-review-concludes/

[link preview]Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary...

Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed Resolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Feb 2025

This market resolves YES if a humanoid robot physically makes contact with the lunar surface before the next human does, and NO otherwise. Resolution will be based on official announcements from space agencies (NASA, CNSA, etc.) and verified mission...

Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2025

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35

@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57...

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2035 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same...

Resolves YES if Leyline of the Guildpact is banned in any format for any amount of time between this market's creation and 12:00AM EST July 1, 2025, even if it is unbanned by then. Becoming restricted does not count. Obtaining an Alchemy rework...

Must be photo or video evidence.

Feinberg recently set a Minecraft 1.16.1 All Advancements speedrun WR of 2:05. Will anyone achieve a sub-2-hour time in this category in 2025?

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/AnaZwQ2p0AQ)

Wikipedia claims that at least 19 people died as part of the BLM protests in 2020, including protesters, bystanders, looters, and guards. Will there be greater levels of violence in 2025? If at least 20 people die in connection with left-leaning...

If Donald Trump ever serves as a figure that I personally consider to be a Pope, Antipope, Pseudopope, or Funko Pope, then this market resolves Yes.

For ambiguous cases, this must be a new role invented explicitly or obviously for Trump; it's not...

French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated that France might officially recognize a Palestinian state in June 2025. This market resolves to 'Yes' if France formally announces recognition of the State of Palestine before October 1, 2025....

Will resolve YES if Andrew Cuomo is elected Mayor of New York City in November 2025

The first race of the season is March 2nd, 2024. If Leclerc is able to end the race ahead of Hamilton (in terms of time including penalties) this will resolve to “yes”.

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, on January 1st...

There is presently a law suit by artists against Midjourney for copyright theft. I am curious whether (as a result of this court process or not) the Midjourney will be forced to remove images of particular artist or artists from their training data..