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You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.
Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards...
This market will resolve according to the player with the most assists in the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season.
Only assists recorded in Bundesliga matches will count. Assists in other competitions (e.g., DFB Pokal, Champions League, Europa League,...
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin...
<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>
Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains high levels of protein,...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A...
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump ever spends 1 full night locked in a prison cell.
Note this is about Trump ever spending even one night in PRISON anytime in the rest of his life.
For definitions, I'm going with Merriam-Webster...
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Vezina Trophy.
If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Vezina Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for...
Resolution Criteria:
Fully Operational: The space hotel must be functioning and able to accommodate guests for overnight stays. This includes having life support systems, sleeping quarters, and other necessary amenities for a hotel functioning...
This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.
If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this...
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination.
The resolution source for this...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or...
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mjmandl/will-waymo-be-the-first-to-provide)
Based on 538 aggregate approval on January 20 2029 (Trump) vs January 20 2025 (Biden). A suitable replacement aggregator will be found if necessary.
Resolves N/A if either Trump isn’t president on the morning of January 20 2029.
If Trump refuses to...
This market will resolve according to the team that selects Kenyon Sadiq in the 2026 NFL draft.
If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled, not completed, or Kenyon Sadiq is not drafted by May 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution...
Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 17 12:00 PM ET to April 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies...
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