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Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in 2000 and 2004, while in 2016 and 2020 the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.
Linear...
Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons...
Dedollarisation refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has...
Resolves NO if he dies, resigns, or is removed from office.
The United States is currently a key military and financial supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in military aid to Ukraine and maintains a strong alliance with the country. There is no historical...
ELK = Eliciting Latent Knowledge.
The spirit of the question is to know whether we will still need to find a solution to whatever the hard parts of the ELK problem are as currently understood.
This question will resolve No if any of the following...
EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film script, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's good enough for a director to use without...
Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021
Going by multiple sources
According to the United Nations Development Program's 2019 Human Development Index, the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.
Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when...
Must happen by the end of 2028.
Any case where Mahmoud Khalil is the defendant would resolve YES, as well as any other case clearly about the administration's detention / green card revocation / deportations of Khalil or that would cover Khalil...
This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
I will resolve this...
"successful global socialist revolution by 2042" means:
workers took control over the means of production in key areas (big factories, real-estate, banks, communication, transport & logistics, ...)
more than half of the world (measured in...
"Leadership position" will include any Board, Director, or Manager position, as well as any role where Danny Ryan will have decision-making authority over the Ethereum Foundation's strategy and/or operations.
The market creator will not trade in...
Resolves based on Freedom House ratings: https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states
Resolves YES if he is, Resolves NO if he continues to be dead as far as we know.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Minnesota. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a...
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...
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