To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+. For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.

My discretion...

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks at 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99%, resolution will be YES.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for February 3 at 12:00 AM ET:

If the San Diego Toreros win, the market will resolve to "San Diego Toreros".

If the Saint Mary's Gaels win, the market will resolve to "Saint Mary's Gaels".

If the game is...

It's currently 5,858.38.

[image]

Resolves YES if Treasury operations systems are placed on the blockchain (or if reporting suggests steps have been taken to do so) by the end of 2026.

[image]This is about placing payment operations systems on the blockchain, NOT a bitcoin reserve.

Within 60 days of his confirmation.

There needs to be an attributable statement to the PRC government. It is not enough if they quietly remove the sanctions. However, the statement does not need specific wording, as long as it draws attention to the...

Recently, Xi Jinping has received significantly less spotlight while specific characters from the military are shifting in public representation (e.g. Vice Chair of the Military Commission).

This resolves to YES if Xi Jinping is not in power by 2028...

This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by December 31st, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

This market is meant to gauge whether or not I can be trusted to pay back my loans on time.

This market will resolve YES if I am ever late to pay back an agreed-upon mana loan. This market will resolve NO when I don't owe anybody mana for 90...

Dean Ball writes that Texas HB 1709 (also known as TRAIGA) is an AI regulation bill meant to combat algorithmic discrimination, and which places a much larger regulatory burden on AI companies than California's SB 1047 would have placed.

Will HB...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by...

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified...

apolloresearch.ai

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ysC6crBKhDBGZfob3/announcing-apollo-research

(https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ysC6crBKhDBGZfob3/announcing-apollo-research)

Resolves as YES if o5 is released before January 1st 2026.

In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, o5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following...

Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question and will not be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

Alphabet sells off Waymo to a competitor and no longer has...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during March 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved...

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to...

The list can be found here:

https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/

The song can be sung by humans, but the beat and lyrics must come from AI with only minor human changes.