Resolution will be based on the ICE annual report for 2025. Resolves Yes if the deportation of illegal immigrants in fiscal year 2025 goes up by 50% compare to the 2023 numbers. (i.e. Resolves Yes if 2025 deportation count is higher than...

Creating shorter timeline market as 2028 one seems to be v bullish.

I tried with GPT-3 to draw some donuts. I really did. It kept giving me a shirtless man. Or a scary looking spider.

I tried again with GPT-3.5 aka the "ChatGPT". It was very bad...

I haven't gotten flights yet.

Edge cases like poking my head in but not "attending" are unlikely, since I'll either fly in for it or I won't.

Resolves yes if this market :

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

is higher than this one:

https://manifold.markets/jcb/will-jesus-christ-return-by-2030-ac

by end of 2025.

Non-compute bounded models allowed.

As of making this, ARC-AGI-2 has not been released yet, but https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025 says “late Q1 2025” so we’ll set an end date for July, which is after Q2 ends.

[link preview]

Elon is extra keen to get to Mars because of AI risk. Will he be too late?

Resolves to whichever is first:

1. This market resolves (YES)

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)2: There are 100...

This market will resolve YES if California passes any new state-level legislation specifically focused on AI safety or AI regulation during 2025.

The bill must be:

Passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature

Signed into law by the...

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul

@/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul-7e23b7755b1d

Conditions for YES:

1. Republicans keep the senate and house after the 2026 midterms, AND

2. There is reliable coverage describing how the Bluesky echo chamber led to a Democrat platform unappealing to voters

AI companies including OpenAI seem to launch models on Tuesdays. Will this trend continue? Clearly one of the most important questions in AI forecasting today!

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Posting because I think the title of this reddit post is probably incorrect and want a market about it

Note: to an extent I am relying on the market participants providing such a story. I will intentionally wait 1 month to resolve in case such a...

Will the U.S. Supreme Court officially hold Donald Trump, or any active member of his Cabinet, in contempt of court before February 1st, 2029?

Iran does not recognize Israel, and a proxy conflict between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the "Zionist regime", "occupied Palestine", and the "little Satan", while they refer to the United States as the "great...

Living species. At least one specimen must break 1kg. (For aquatic species, this ignores the weight of water that can be easily removed, e.g. wringing out a sponge.)

In order to resolve YES, the scientific community must come to recognize it as a...

To resolve YES an AI doctor should be publicly available and able to independently conduct medical consultations without oversight from a human doctor, including being authorised to provide official medical documents like:

prescriptions for...

Toronto is holding its next mayoral elections in 2026. Olivia Chow won the 2023 mayoral by-election.

Will Olivia Chow be re-elected mayor of Toronto in the next mayoral election?

Update 2025-04-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of Aliens Clarification

Extraterrestrial Life: Refers to microbial life, biosignatures (only if NASA publicly states they are evidence of life), or direct detection via instruments...

Azerbaijanis are the second-largest ethnic group in Iran. There has been recent political tension between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several...

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Tentatively resolves as whether there's media coverage of Anthropic governance / direction having the same magnitude of publicity, and similar stakes to Nov 2023 OpenAI, and the Google+DeepMind merger. The event in question must be contentious,...