Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2035 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same...

I have done <thing> about 50% of days over the past few weeks!

excludes things completely outside my control (like software crashes), but includes things partially inside my control that take skill

Resolves YES if the final round of the Clements HS Science Bowl Invitational (Discord: https://discord.gg/NuwjsqVz) begins more than an hour after its scheduled start time, according to the schedule provided at the beginning of the tournament....

Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2028

Paper must either be available, or...

This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,

Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,

And evidence of at least ~10% of the...

Will this feature exist within a year?

A history of Eliezer's AI box experiments can be found here, with a bit more detail provided here. He won 3 as the AI and lost 2.

Others have also attempted the challenge. Ron Garret attempted it here, and lost. Tuxedage attempted it 6 times,...

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

Background "Grok" is an AI model developed by xAI, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, launched in 2023. Air traffic control (ATC) is a critical service that helps guide aircraft, maintain safe distances between flights, and manage the flow...

This market will resolve YES if the Giant Panda, also known as Panda Bear, is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www..

The last mainline Star Wars movie, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, was released in 2019. Rumors speak of a new movie in the works.

This market resolves positively if there is a new movie in the mainline franchise - presumably Episode X, but...

Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.

https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952

At the bottom of above link is the...

In reference to recent prediction by JCal at the All-In Poscast

https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/

SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is working on a plan to restructure its core business...

I'll randomly sample an original post from AISafetyMemes on twitter that was released in 2024 and is still up and go into detail about the each of the claims made.

If the tweet makes no verifiable claims of interest, then I'll resample. Then I'll...

The bitcoin mining doesn’t need to produce a bitcoin.

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31276)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of...

El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has offered to accept deportees from the U.S. of any nationality, including American citizens and legal residents who have committed violent crimes. This unprecedented offer comes as the U.S. seeks solutions for...

This market is part of a post: Manifold for CBT

Note that this only counts for murders or possible murders. Obvious accidents or natural causes will resolve to No. If charges are brought or a police investigation is ongoing, this will resolve to Yes.