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Perena FDV above $500M one day after launch?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Perena's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

Officially declared pandemic by the WHO before 2026

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 51
Volume: M12k
Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-02-07?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-11

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 7, 2026 If CS Huancayo wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Will I be able to buy human milk or lab produced human milk in a supermarket in the USA by the end of 2029?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on the type of supermarket:

The supermarket must be a location that a typical consumer can visit.

It should be a conventional retail outlet, not a specialized or restricted...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M525
Will Xiaojun Lin (CHN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating ST - Men's...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $56
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-02-14?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 14, 2026 If Brisbane Roar FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $22k
Will there be a federal election in Canada in 2024?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-12

Resolves yes if Canadians go to the federal polls in 2024. An election called in 2024, but in which actual voting occurs in 2025 would resolve no.

Last updated: 2025-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.1k
Will Half-life 3 be released before the end of 2027?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Other DLC like HL alyx don't count, it can be called something else (not HL 3 necessarily) as long as it's very similar to the original game and made by Valve

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 23
Volume: M1.4k
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in March 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of March 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the March meeting?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
🔥Will More Than 1,327,999 Acres Burn During The 2025 California Wildfire Season?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Will More Than 1,327,999 Acres Burn During The 2025 California Wildfire Season?

RESOLUTION

Resolves YES if 1,328,000 or more acres are burned in 2025.

Resolves NO if 1,327,999 or less acres are burned in 2025.

INFORMATION

Data may not be...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M4.0k
Will Poland participate in a war by the end of 25
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68692195

This market will resolve YES, if two major western media sources, report on a war that Poland participate at (it can be on Ukraine/Russia/other land).

Or, officials from Poland declare a war in a press...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M2.4k
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.4k
The end of religion by 2075
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves YES if at any point before the start of 2075 there will be less than 5% of worldwide (Earthwide) population, who consider themselves believing in some kind of god/spirit/entity/"predefined global plan, destiny and the purpose of life" and so...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 39
Volume: M3.1k
Gil Vicente FC vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5
68%
Over
33%
Under
Last updated: 2026-02-11

In the upcoming Primeira Liga game between Gil Vicente FC and SC Braga, scheduled for February 14 at 3:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Gil Vicente FC and SC Braga combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $52
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.1k
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.3k
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18k
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 11?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $27k
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes...

Last updated: 2026-02-11
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
Will Tesla sell >1M humanoid robots by 2030?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Related Markets

(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-tesla-sell-1b-of-humanoid-robo/will-the-tesla-bot-be-available-by)

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M2.0k

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