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Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-05-12

After April 4, 2025, this will happen again.

Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.

Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M16k
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $310k
Will more users subscribe to Claude Pro than ChatGPT Plus at EOY 2024?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-08

I will probably have trouble finding the exact numbers, so bet cautiously.

Last updated: 2025-03-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.6k
Will there be accurate, 'privacy violating' AI available for public use in the US by the end of 2030?
81%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

By 2030 I expect there will be AI that can digest most publicly available information about a person and then from that generate somewhat accurate but 'privacy violating' inferences. This is already somewhat done by advertisers, but I personally...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M336
[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-14

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21761/?theme=dark)Resolution...

Last updated: 2025-03-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M852
Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-29

May resolve NO early if Cyprus regains control of Northern Cyprus and Turkey gives up, making the likelihood of another country recognizing Northern Cyprus highly unlikely.

Last updated: 2025-03-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M904
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.6k
Hull City AFC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 3.5
74%
Under
27%
Over
Last updated: 2026-02-19

In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Hull City AFC and Queens Park Rangers FC, scheduled for February 21 at 7:30 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Hull City AFC and Queens Park Rangers FC combine to score 4 or more goals in this...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $894
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
63%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-04

AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today

including generating the theorems to prove.

Last updated: 2025-06-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.1k
Will Germany leave the EU before 2040?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-05

If the EU ceases to exist before 2040 this will resolve NA.

If the EU changes its name or form, the default assumption should be that this market applies to that 'new' group. If there is a mainstream debate or consensus outside of Manifold as to...

Last updated: 2025-04-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M772
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $64k
Will there be a Wall Street Stock Market Crash before 2027?
89%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-18

The definiton for what qualifies as a 'Market Crash' is vague but a general guideline is a drop of more than 10% in major indices over a short timespan.

https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/s/stock-market-crash

https://en.wikipedia..

Last updated: 2025-04-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M3.5k
Will the One Piece Manga end before July 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-01

Question will resolved YES, if the final chapter is released before 1st of July 2025.

[image]

Last updated: 2025-06-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 31
Volume: M14k
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest assists per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Taylor Swift pregnant by March 31?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift announces that she is pregnant between December 28, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.9k
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated),...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18k
What will be the price of bitcoin on 14 July 2025?
17%
At least $102,000, but less than $109,000
13%
At least $109,000, but less than $116,000
10%
At least $123,000, but less than $130,000
8%
At least $95,000, but less than $102,000
7%
At least $116,000, but less than $123,000
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 74
Forecasters: 30
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 16 above $250?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.6k
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".

The...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.2k
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 19 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-19

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on February 19, 2026.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market...

Last updated: 2026-02-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $440

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