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Will Samford win the 2026 SoCon conference championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve according to the team that is officially determined as the winner of the 2026 SoCon conference championship.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to win the 2026 SoCon conference championship per...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.7k
Will Trey Hendrickson play for Philadelphia Eagles in 2026-27?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve to the next team Trey Hendrickson officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If Trey Hendrickson does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If Trey...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $82
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-05

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This...

Last updated: 2025-04-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 54
Volume: M2.9k
Formula 1: Will Liam Lawson score more points in 2025 than Sergio Perez scored in 2024 (152 points)?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-16

In 2024, Sergio Perez scored 152 points for Red Bull, which was thought of as an extremely poor performance compared to Max Verstappen's 437 in the same year. Perez was subsequently kicked off of Red Bull and Liam Lawson was brought in. Will Lawson...

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M11k
BNP Paribas Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Arthur Fils
> 99%
Arthur Fils
< 1%
Marton Fucsovics
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market refers on the tennis match between Marton Fucsovics and Arthur Fils in the BNP Paribas Open, scheduled for March 8 at 2:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Marton Fucsovics' if Marton Fucsovics advances against Arthur Fils.

This...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $325k
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 3rd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 3rd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League....

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question....

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will the Rock Dove, a.k.a. Common Pigeon (Columba livia) become extinct in the current century?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-30

The Rock Dove is a species of pigeon, originally native to Southern Europe, Northern Africa and Western Asia. The species includes the domestic pigeon and feral pigeons living in cities around the world. This market will resolve YES if the Rock Dove...

Last updated: 2025-04-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.4k
Will any new animal species of at least 1kg be discovered before 2028?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-10

Living species. At least one specimen must break 1kg. (For aquatic species, this ignores the weight of water that can be easily removed, e.g. wringing out a sponge.)

In order to resolve YES, the scientific community must come to recognize it as a...

Last updated: 2025-04-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M3.5k
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 9, 2026 If US Sassuolo Calcio wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $186k
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

They don't need to donate their fortune by then, just someone who is significantly involved in the EA movement who commits to donating a significant portion of their fortune to EA causes. Forbes must estimate their net worth to be greater than $1B.

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M3.3k
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 15?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only incidents listing ChatGPT...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox switch leagues in baseball before 2028
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-11

i.e. the Mets move to the American league or the Yankees/Red Sox move to the National league.

If the leagues are significantly renamed or there are no more leagues, then this resolves YES

If leagues still exist but are irrelevant due to there being...

Last updated: 2025-03-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M2.3k
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-14?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 14, 2026 If FC Augsburg wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.3k
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $36k
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $724
Pony ears for humans before 2035?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-16

Resolves yes if by the end of 2034 at least one biological human has pony ears. The ears must appear pony-like and grant similar hearing to ponies. This includes the ability to move to detect where sounds are coming from and to express emotions.

The...

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M638
Will Mikes Evans play for San Francisco 49ers in 2026-27?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-09

This market will resolve to the next team Mike Evans officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If Mike Evans does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If Mike Evans joins a...

Last updated: 2026-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $165
Tiger Woods Will Win Another PGA Tournament
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-29

Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2024-12-30 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm

Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important clarification:

Seniors tour tournaments do not count...

Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 37
Volume: M12k
Will I be banned at least once on Manifold before the end of 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

[image]

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M1.8k
Will there be a Davy Back fight during Elbaf arc?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

Will update the description/Keep up with comments. DMs are also open.

Resolves YES if the Davy Back Fight takes place off of Elbaf Island but still during the Arc's chapters.

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M1.4k

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