Yesterday, "Style Control" on lmarena.ai was made default, meaning lmarena.ai/leaderboard will show the Elo of the model if adjusted to the style the model uses, rather than strictly the preferences of the chatbot arena voters.

Will they remove the...

Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes. If any IDF presence remains, it will not be considered a full withdrawal.

I will not...

Recession defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, as published quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and taking into account any revisions made in the following two quarterly releases.

This market resolves with...

Resolves YES if month-to-month inflation exceeds 50% in any month in the next decade.

[markets]

Resolution Criteria:

The market resolves “Yes” if Microsoft officially announces that it has added Bitcoin (BTC) to its balance sheet (B/S) at any time in 2025, as confirmed by credible sources such as press releases, official financial statements,...

They've never paid a dividend. Other companies do for example as of today:

NVDA: 0.029%

META: 0.33%

MSFT: 0.78%

AT&T: 5.03%

T-MOBILE: 1.64%

GM: 0.94%

TOYOTA: 2.83%

This is about if they actually pay out by end of June 30, 2027

Note that if...

Canada.. North America....

TRUED FAKE..

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

40000 people liked this tweet:

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Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

For this question, lockdown = stay-at-home orders.

IE will he be the guest on seasons 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15?

Joseph was a guest on season 2, surely the worst Jet Lag season

Resolves NO if Jet Lag doesn't make it to sixteen seasons and Joseph doesn't return before the end of the last season

in this article Openai claims "Albania is using OpenAI’s tools to accelerate its EU accession by as much as 5.5 years;" https://openai.com/blog/openai-elon-musk if Albania enters the European Union will there be any news by a Albanian goverment...

On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

Exactly the same as https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-openai-anthropic-or-google-dee-z5xkbux22u by @JacobPfau, except only for Anthropic. I'll defer to Jacob's resolution of his own market.

Other markets:

OpenAI: https://manifold..

The only problem solved by the time the marked is created (4 Dec 2022) is the Poincaré conjecture. The remaining ones are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, Hodge conjecture, Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness, P versus NP problem, Riemann...

AI companies including OpenAI seem to launch models on Tuesdays. Will this trend continue? Clearly one of the most important questions in AI forecasting today!

Resolution based on whether Sam Altman OR OpenAI succeeds in raising at least one TRILLION dollars for an AI project of any kind. It can be debt or equity funding. Must take place by end of 2025.

https://www.wsj..

Resolves in 2050 based on whether the consensus of toxicologists is that fluoridated water decreases IQ to a statistically significant degree, even at 2025 levels of recommended fluoridation (according to the CDC)

Resolution criteria: a public source (Twitter) which states that they have been on at least 1 date together