This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bitcoin Korea Premium Index reaches 8 or higher at any point between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be CryptoQuant,...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 24 2026 If Cardiff Rugby wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 1, 2026 If Olympique de Marseille wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panguna_mine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bougainvillean_independence_referendum#Negotiations

Will the Panguna Mine, one of the richest deposits of copper and gold ore in the world, resume operation before 2028?...

This question resolves Yes if Elon Musk acquires Hasbro before May 28th.

This market also resolves Yes if it's acquired by xAI, Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, or another company Elon has strong control over.

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Resolves as YES if United States 10-year treasuries trade at a yield over 10% some time before 2026.

Resolves as YES if 10-year treasuries trade at a yield of 10% or more in any major market.

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München, scheduled for April 25 at 9:30 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if 1. FSV Mainz 05 and FC Bayern München combine to score 5 or more goals in this game.

If the...

In the upcoming Copa do Brasil game between SE Palmeiras and EC Jacuipense, scheduled for April 23 at 6:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if SE Palmeiras and EC Jacuipense combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

If the combined...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes above 5,000 points on the last trading day of April 2025. If the closing value is 5,000 or below, the market will resolve to "No." The official closing value will be...

Something like 23 and me.

"Spit in this tube / take this swab, and send it to us. We'll create a fertilized egg with your DNA replicated"

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise,...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A...

This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.

The resolution source for this market is...

Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20). Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election. Will the pink tide recede?

A country is considered governed by leftists if a party...

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Puducherry, India, in April–June 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly in the...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If Portsmouth FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 25 at 8:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Penguins and Flyers combine to score 8 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under"..

In the upcoming MLS game between FC Cincinnati and New York Red Bulls, scheduled for April 25 at 7:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if FC Cincinnati and New York Red Bulls combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined...

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Cyprus and Croatia scheduled for 2026-04-24 in T20 Series Cyprus vs Croatia, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the...

Scott Alexander, a psychiatrist, writes the blog "Astral Codex Ten" (formerly "Slate Star Codex"), which focuses on topics like probability theory, cognitive science, and AI. As AI language models improve, they might generate blog posts resembling...