Metaforecast

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

40%

Unlikely

According to the US EMP Commission (2004):

"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 88

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

7%

Very unlikely

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) normally requires clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a public health emergency (PHE) has been declared: for...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 257

Will Petr Fiala serve a full term as prime minister of Czechia?

89%

Likely

Full term means uninterrupted government until next regular elections (scheduled for autumn 2025). Will resolve as NO, if Fiala resigns or fails a confidence vote in the parliament, or if there are snap elections - even if Fiala is then once again...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 14

Volume: M1.4k

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

31%

Unlikely

Details in this blog post. Barnett wins if:

By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 28

Volume: M12k

Will Donald Trump establish a new calendar while president?

6%

Very unlikely

for example one with January 6, 2021 marking Year 0

Must be used and promoted in a significant way

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M2.3k

Germany announces supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine before April 2025

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if before April 1st, 2025 (CEST):

The German government makes an official announcement confirming it will supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine OR

Credible news sources (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 32

Volume: M5.8k

Will Non-invasive Brain Computer Interfaces Become Common By 2040?

42%

About Even

Resolves Yes if at least 20% of the global population wears a device that reads and interprets brain waves for at least one hour per day.

Resolves No otherwise.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 27

Volume: M1.1k

Will we get ASI before 2032?

40%

About Even

Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 61

Volume: M19k

Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Noam Chomsky, a renowned linguist, philosopher, and cognitive scientist, proposed the theory of Universal Grammar in the 1950s. This theory suggests that humans possess an innate language faculty, allowing them to learn any human language to which...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 44

Volume: M12k

🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful Launches In 2025?

99%

Virtually certain

Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches in 2025?

Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.

SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST

Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 20

Volume: M10.0k

Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 125

Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?

4%

Very unlikely

In April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, Bud Light had fallen to 14th...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 83

Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY?

27%

Unlikely

Any confirmed clip of a song counts once. If they play five seconds of one song in the background of a scene and then a different full song over part of the credits, that would resolve Yes.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M811

Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?

90%

Very likely

The Super Bowl is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 23

Will Google Maps display "Gulf of the International Proletariat" in place of "Gulf of Mexico" before 2026?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

[image]

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 12

Volume: M2.2k

Will we get AGI before October 1st 2027?

28%

Unlikely

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 12

Volume: M461

If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?

99%

Virtually certain

On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024. In a 4-3 decision, "“a majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president...

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 257

Contrapoints stock (Permanent)

74%

Likely

Permanent stock related to ContraPoints https://www.youtube.com/@ContraPoints

Dec 9, 3:05pm: Contrapoints stock Permanent → Contrapoints stock (Permanent)

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 16

Volume: M1.1k

Lakers beat Timberwolves tomorrow?

54%

About Even

https://www.docsports.com/free-picks/nba/2025/minnesota-timberwolves-vs-los-angeles-lakers-prediction-4-30-2025-preview-and-pick.html

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Los Angeles Lakers defeat the Minnesota Timberwolves...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M485

Will China beat the USA to Mars?

30%

Unlikely

Resolves yes if China lands a person on Mars before the USA does. The person has to set foot on Mars for it to qualify.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 68

Volume: M11k

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2025? (1000 mana subsidy)

25%

Unlikely

Merge = a major integrated effort, instead of a few disjointed collaborative projects. A significant amount of resources shared.

Doesnt have to form a single merged company or organization of a kind, but a systematic sharing of resources, research,...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 106

Volume: M18k