Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note that the...

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's...

Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated July 4th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver..

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 21, 2026 If BV Borussia 09 Dortmund wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from...

This market refers to the tennis match between Jennifer Brady and Sloane Stephens in the Miami Open, scheduled for March 17 2026. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this...

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch..

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by...

Will XRP's price exceed $6.9 by the end of 2025?

The market will resolve based on XRP's closing price on December 31st, 2025 according to CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp). If XRP's price is above $6.9, the market resolves YES. If...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be...

Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100. Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco. Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from...

In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League game between RC Strasbourg Alsace and HNK Rijeka, scheduled for March 19 at 4:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if RC Strasbourg Alsace and HNK Rijeka combine to score 3 or more goals in this...

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Data for a...

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person...