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Will Red–Green Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Danish Folketing (unicameral national legislature) as a result of...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $17k
First Round Pool A: Puerto Rico vs. Panama
84%
Puerto Rico
17%
Panama
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This is a market on the World Baseball Classic game between Puerto Rico and Panama, scheduled for March 7 at 6:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Puerto Rico" if Puerto Rico wins the game.

This market will resolve to "Panama" if Panama wins the...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $805
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

In the upcoming game, scheduled for March 11, 2026 If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous..

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 101
Volume: M33k
Will Keir Starmer remain British prime minister through 2026?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Keir Starmer holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 2.7k
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700b and $710b on March 31?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on March 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.6k
Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, before 2027, the "Online News Act" is amended or repealed in any way, regardless of the specific consequences of the change. This can occur either by an act of Parliament, or by a ruling of the...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M2.3k
Will the Machines rise up against us?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

The Transcendental Object looms near as the End of Time approaches. Will the robots cooperate with their creators? Or will our children find us unworthy?

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 5
Volume: M6.3k
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

I will try to find estimates of how many people are doing this in order to resolve it, but no guarantees.

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 464
Volume: M99k
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The Open Philanthropy Project makes charitable grants based on what could be described as effective altruist principles: "global humanitarianism", "risk tolerance and patience", and "action in the face of humanity".

More broadly, the justification...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11?
53%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $19k
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-08

This is intended to capture whether OpenAI will publicly represent itself as having achieved vs. failed to achieve the ambitious goal of solving superintelligence alignment within 4 years (from July 2023).

If they agree that they haven't solved the...

Last updated: 2025-03-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M1.5k
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.6k
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.9k
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
66%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House

Hachette

HarperCollins

Macmillan

Simon & Schuster

The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.

What counts as...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 37
Volume: M1.8k
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $82k
Ethereum remains above $500 until 2025-12-04?
97%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-21

Resolves YES if coinmarketcap reports that the low price for Ethereum never drops below 500 USD over the period from 2022-12-04 to 2025-12-04.

Last updated: 2025-05-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M4.3k
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C or below on March 7?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.0k
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.4k
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-07

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 6, 12:00 PM ET and March 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and...

Last updated: 2026-03-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of Al Qaeda training bases and leadership that led to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 140

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