Resolves NO if it takes over a year.

Resolves NO if he dies and the gameover screen is triggered.

Resolves YES if he reaches the end of the game without triggering the gameover screen (must not be a dishonorable honormode run).

Does not get...

Resolves YES if there is a Wikipedia page called something like 202X Iran-Pakistan War (MUST contain the word war)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_missile_strikes_in_Pakistan

I will not bet in this market

Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of intelligence and mental illness. Many physical traits, such as height, attractiveness, strength, and...

Release on any platform for either game counts, including early access if it's generally available. Leaks, demos, reviewer only access and other limited forms of release do not count.

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.

This market will...

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 20 12:00 PM ET to March 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by Taipei's Central Weather Administration in degrees Celsius on 21 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei...

Resolves YES if Trump announces another pause on a majority of new tariffs set to be imposed (or unpaused) in July 2025, or announces that the tariffs will not be imposed. If tariffs are paused in June and then the pause is extended in July, also...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly...

This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers...

In the upcoming MLS game between Nashville SC and Orlando City SC, scheduled for March 21, 2026 at 6:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Nashville SC vs. Orlando City SC match originally scheduled for March 21, 2026 at...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round...

The ban must be announced within 14 days of the the card becoming legal in the format in paper OR the card becoming legal in the format online (i.e. ignoring any pre-release events).

Pre-bans don't count, the card has to spend some time being...

This market evaluates the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being reached between Russia and Ukraine by Easter (April 20, 2025). A "ceasefire" refers to an official or effective cessation of hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, where both...

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of...

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Bulls win the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA...

BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

Resolves YES if Linda Yaccarino ceases to be the CEO of X at any point before 11:59PM December 31st PT 2025, for any reason (it does not matter if she is fired, resigns, or etc). Resolves NO otherwise.

50.00% (1 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 100.00% of the time.