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I prefer my questions to be unambiguous and objective. Please feel free to suggest...
If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES.
If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
See...
Please make your case in the comments and be nice to each other
Upon hearing that the newly announced steel tariffs have been implemented, I will buy a head of lettuce from a nearby grocery store. I will keep said head of lettuce on my counter indoors. (roughly 70 degrees F/21 degrees C) If the head of lettuce...
Resolves YES when Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel or NO when the Israel–Hamas war ends, whichever happens first.
The war "ending" is defined, for the purposes of this market, as the Wikipedia page on the 2023...
In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as The New York Times and Al Jazeera published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme..
Boom Supersonic is developing the Overture, a supersonic passenger aircraft designed to carry 65-80 passengers at Mach 1.7 (approximately 1,050 mph). The company has already secured orders from major airlines including United, American Airlines, and...
Proof-of-work (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. Proof-of-stake (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less...
To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies.
On May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked "Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?." The article reported on an analysis from...
Question is largely taken from these two questions about the cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD (alternatively ) and labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD. As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and...
The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):
Resolves YES if anyone current living is verified as 120 years old by 2030. Only Jeanne Calment (1875-1997) has been verified as reaching 120. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia..
With SweetGreen, AT&T, and Amazon boosting mandates in 2025, it looks like there is continued momentum for RTO. There are also various initiatives for US government employees to return to the office.
The Current Population Survey estimated in for...
Three of the most anticipated and ambitious technological developments of the 21st century are artificial general intelligence (AGI), net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computing. This question asks whether these three technologies...
The website deagel.com made "predictions" of the populations of different countries in 2025 (archived here). Among them is a prediction that the USA's population would drop to a staggering 99 million (for comparison, the USA was home to 331 million...
For the HLS development & service contract, SpaceX added a demonstration mission of landing their Starship-based HLS in advance of Artemis III. If they manage to put a Starship demonstration vehicle on the lunar surface by the end of 2025, this...
Related Questions on Metaculus:
Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?
Will there be a US-China war by 2035?
According to Silver Bulletin — if they stop doing approval ratings (as FiveThirtyEight did), another reliable source will be used.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon...
The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The last time...
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