Definition:

A state-sanctioned death squad constitutes an organized entity – comprising state agents (including military, police, intelligence personnel, and their proxies), private military or security contractors acting under state direction or...

YES = "I am running for president of the United States" -Pete Buttigieg

Or similar statement thereof

Resolution Criteria:

The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds $169,000 USD at any point on April 20, 2025, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high price in any 1-minute candlestick during the 24-hour period...

Beyond Meat, Inc. is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry...

The book must have her name as the author for it to count

An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's Belgorod region. Russia claims it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.

Will it...

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

https://companiesmarketcap.com/

@/strutheo/will-tsmc-be-worth-1t-at-the-end-of

The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations,...

Resolves yes if there is a full or partial lockdown in at least 100 countries due to Mpox or if the WHO declares an Mpox pandemic by the start of 2026

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

So-called "third parties" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of third parties) rarely win elections in America. However, the last third party member who won a senate election...

A 'deluxe' version of another game counts; a port with no new characters, stages, or gamemodes doesn't.

This market is a duplicate of this market with slightly changed resolution criteria: https://manifold..

@/strutheo/will-destiny-stream-on-twitch-again

TL;DR - Lab Leak ideas for COVID origins will gain wide acceptance if and only if Fauci passes away, and also it will happen within 3 months of that.

Details:

If the NYTimes, Guardian, and Economist all have not already...

[image]As seen in this graph, Claude has gotten much better at playing Pokemon over its iterations. Resolves yes if before 2027 an Anthropic LLM manages to beat the elite 4 in Pokemon Red or Blue using the same or similar scaffolding to the one...

Monopoly Deal is a game by Hasbro. The rules can be found here.

Will an AI be able to win a Monopoly Deal tournament with fairly experienced players by the end of 2025? If a game is similar to Monopoly Deal (such as Covidopoly), that would count as...

Will Donald Trump have served as President of the United States for nine or more years by the end of 2030?

May 3, 6:51pm: Franky stocks → Franky stocks

https://twitter.com/AgainstMalaria/status/1631307793000026114