If the position is renamed, that still counts.

Will there be an official public NASA report on the ongoing Boeing Starliner problems? (Boeing Crew Flight Test.) This would be any official mishap, incident, accident, near miss, or lessons learned report that discusses details about problems...

Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.

For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.

This question resolves YES...

Resolves YES if Manifest 2025 happens and the organizers suspend ticket sales at any point due to capacity issues or reaching a preset limit. Resolves NO if tickets are available throughout the event. Resolves N/A if there is no Manifest event in...

Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer...

Resolves to yes if on 1 January 2035, Apple or a successor business is selling a device whose brand name contains the word "iPhone".

Resolves YES if some video-game that released this year or later gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games. Must be top 10 at any time before...

Judged according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country

I'll go with the numbers in the table, assuming an equivalent still exists in 2030. I will ignore any section on "Debate over United States numbers" and just look at the...

To resolve this, I will look at the huggingface Chatbot Arena Leaderboad and see if GPT-4-Turbo's ELO is within the top 20. If it is, this market resolves as yes. If not, then no.

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

On December 20, 2024, OpenAI reported that their o3 reasoning model scored 25.2% on EpochAI's Frontier Math benchmark. For context, AI models like GPT-4 and Gemini score around 2%. Will a Chinese-made AI model surpass that score in 2025?

Resolution...

This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots, dating back to when the British...

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)

Resolves yes if the person who wins the 2024 election, dies before inauguration day in 2024 regardless if they are serving as president at the time of their death.

Scientific breakeven, Q = 1

"Brightline West is a proposed privately run high-speed rail route in the United States linking Las Vegas Valley and Rancho Cucamonga in the Greater Los Angeles area through the California high desert."

"[R]evenue service is planned to begin in 2027..

The UK Labour party has stated their policy to liberalise planning, build on currently protected green belt land around London, and expects this to result in 1.5 million new homes built in the first five years of the new government.

https://labour..

Number of cars/vehicles (cars, trucks, vans, etc...)

On whether China will launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan during Xi Jinping's premiership. The social security actuarial table says this Pooh-resembling dictator for life will live till about 2038.

Some examples of disasters:

-Nuclear strike

-Pandemic

-AI mishap

-Famine

-Tsunami

-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare

If a disaster affects the city of London (England), we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the...

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected at its December 2024 meeting, but its own projections for cuts in 2025 were reduced for the end of the year (WGBH, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 17 June 2025 if still open and the...

Slovak PM Robert Fico threatened to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine if Ukraine halts Russian gas transit after January 1, 2025. This market resolves YES if Slovakia implements a stop to electricity supplies before March 31st 2025 as reported in...