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This market will resolve based on public reports a machine of similar quality to the one in this story:
https://www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/epistemologicalNightmare.html
Resolve YES if Musk is no longer head of the Department of Government Efficiency by Jan 1, 2026
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Market End Date: January 1, 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)
Clarification (2025-03-05): It is understood that Musk has...
Criteria for Resolution:
Resolves YES if:
Mike Johnson spends one full term as Speaker of the House. This doesn't mean being Speaker for two years without gaps - it means being speaker for one full session of Congress. Specifically, he must be elected Speaker at the...
Since partition, India and Pakistan have had a tense relationship and many conflicts. In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the Kargil war.
One Piece Manga. Who knows what Brook’s devil fruit awakening could have in store? We’ve already seen Zoro have an encounter with death, so it seems him dying could be likely in the future. Maybe Brook will be able to revive Zoro after he awakens his...
An important concept in economic development is Financial Inclusion: the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a...
Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch what is called unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating...
Will King Charles die before 14th November 2028?
Nov 17, 7:01pm: King Charles will die before the age of 80? → King Charles will die before the age of 80?
Close date updated to 2028-11-14 11:59 pm
Nov 17, 7:48pm: King Charles will die before the...
Will the Delaware C Corp RESMPDEV Incorporated DBA as Retis Labs hit a valuation of 1 billion USD of end of 2026 USD by the end of 2026? The judgment will be ruled if the corporation goes public or can be deduced from raised money, but will fail if...
This market resolves yes if the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election remains alive and in office until Inauguration Day in 2028.
The proposal to dolarize Argentina's economy has been brought to the forefront by presidential candidate Javier Milei. He argues that dolarization would end the country's inflation problem and proposes to demolish the Central Bank. However,...
The public consciousness of the United States, to be clear.
Like AI risk, gain-of-function research, etcetera.
If people talk about it for a month and then forget about it then I guess that doesn't count.
Resolves somewhat subjectively based on my...
Resolves YES if Shayne Coplan is formally indicted, charged, or arrested for any felony offense (not misdemeanors) by any U.S. federal, state, or local authority before January 1, 2028. Resolves NO if no such charges are filed before January 1, 2028..
Loan terms:
Evan to send Tumbles M10000 now. Tumbles to repay with interest M13500 by 2025-01-07, EoD AoE. Tumbles will place a limit order for M13500 on Yes at 99%, which Evan will fill.
Background:
The intent is to leverage the Manifold loans...
Which party will win the popular vote in Rhode Island at the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolves yes if Canadians go to the federal polls in 2024. An election called in 2024, but in which actual voting occurs in 2025 would resolve no.
Including myself as one of the potential 10, though I won't be betting in this market.
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves YES if before 2026, there are at least 10 people posting comments in this market reporting having bought access to an...
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 2.5 billion views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88...
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently..
Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Release Date Specificity Update:
A valid release date must provide more detail than just the year.
Merely revealing the year (e.g., 2025) is not sufficient for the market to be resolved as...
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