"Very famous" = Has at least 5 million followers on Twitter, or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.

The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter....

Shawn Ryan had a podcast with a man who received an email on Proton Mail allegedly from Las Vegas Cybertruck bomber Matthew Livelsberger.

https://deepnewz..

If by 2045 we have artificial general intelligence, this market resolves to YES if in the 60 days after that Eliezer Yudkowsky is non-ironically declared the enemy #1 by the AI.

As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.

"3...

According to statistics gathered from the American Cancer Society (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the CDC's data in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000...

From now on, whenever I see an "EXPLOSIVE" political tweet on twitter, I'll make a manifold market on it. I'll check back in two years- and see if there's clear evidence (imo) it's substantiated, or clear evidence (imo) it was wrong or very...

Turkey Tom has been burning up the DGG scene lately, many comments in chat about how "(he) is the best orbiter", now you get the chance to put your (imaginary) money with your mouth is and show your love in the form of Turkey Tom's very own permanent...

Update 10/29: Resolves positively if there is a US president by 2035 who identifies as anything other than heterosexual.

Update 10/29: A positive resolution requires the subject to publicly self-identify as queer / non-heterosexual while a sitting...

Phillips curves are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's...

Several animal groups, including cetaceans, corvids, cephalopods, and primates, have complex communication systems that some have argued meet linguistic criteria for language.

This market will resolve to YES if a non human animal communication...

Modern Monetary Theory is currently a heterodox economics theory.

MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually...

Will all jobs become replaced by AI by 2030, with jobs only as hobbies?

This question asks if the inflation-adjusted US economy will have a year where it's 30% bigger than it has ever been before.

This question resolves YES if, in any year up to and including 2034, the US Real GDP (as reported by the US Bureau of...

Any type of jewish allowed. Any analysis allowed. The data will be downloaded.

Making this market because people keep asking if i'm jewish at all and I say no and they get mad and accuse me of gaslighting them and want to bet against me on it, so...

This is about whether or not he can still walk, not about the specific circumstances of the helicopter on the south lawn. I am flexible about where it goes down, but will he be walking unaided on his last day in office is the core of this question.

Resolution criteria:

A "YES" outcome requires that a credible source (e.g. a government agency such as the USDA-APHIS) confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the contiguous United States has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

@/strutheo/will-a-nuclear-detonation-happen-in

Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2036.

This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or...

Will an AI first product with a camera that attached to the person in some way sell more than 100,000

units before the end of 2025? Example product: https://hu.ma.ne New Website: https://humane.com/ Resolves YES if there is such a product. NO...