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George Clooney is nominated for Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Play for 'Good Night, and Good Luck' at the 2025 Tony Awards. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Clooney wins the award, and 'No' otherwise. Official results will be available on the...
Resolves yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches $120,000 or more at anytime before 12/31/25, 11:59pm UTC.
Resolution Source will be the all time high (ATH) per Coingecko:
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021
Current market cap: Ethereum: $384B
Solana: $101B
The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out digital copies of books it has in its physical possession, such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.
During the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial...
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if the global economy experiences a recession in 2025, as determined by one of the following:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially declares a global recession in 2025
The World Bank...
They can be president for any length of time.
This market closes right after inaguration day 2033.
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - Gender non-conforming applies only if the presentation is clearly intended to look strongly feminine. (AI summary of...
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it's possible to...
Stoke Space has an interesting approach to rocket reusability, focusing on second-stage reusability first with a complex multi-engine control scheme. They recently completed a succcessful hop, with their vehicle landing intact on the first free...
If the US AISI is gutted before July, this market resolves to "Yes"
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has linked to an article about the AISI's transformation into the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI)..
Resolves YES if Trump pardons Bob Menendez by EOY.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Robert Menendez is an American lawyer and politician who served as a United States senator from New Jersey from 2006 until his resignation in 2024 following his conviction...
The first trailer just came out today stating a 2025 release date.
@/strutheo/will-the-grand-theft-auto-6-release
https://twitter.com/AlecStapp/status/1628180622786035712
Market will resolve when either it goes above 80%, or it goes two years without increasing.
AI has been rapidly developing in recent years, and well before this it has long been opined that decisions in our legal and political systems could be better handled by AI than human beings. The passage of legislation, authored entirely by AI,...
Rumors suggest Taylor Swift is working on new material, with potential plans for a 2025 release. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Swift officially releases a new studio album (excluding re-recordings) on or before August 31, 2025, and 'No' otherwise....
Recently, North Korea made headlines by officially abandoning its goal of reuniting with the South and subsequently amending its constitution to determine South Korea its "primary foe and principal enemy" and then demolishing the reunification...
Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in...
Resolved according to the same source that Our World In Data uses, which is Ember Climate.
"non-fossil fuel sources" exclude coal, gas, oil, and "other fossil," and include everything else: hydro, bioenergy, nuclear, solar, wind, and "other...
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