Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Satoshi Nakamoto has appeared on a published video/audio podcast with Dwarkesh Patel before January 1st 2031.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Major 2 DreamHack tournament (Call of Duty League Major II, hosted at DreamHack Birmingham), currently scheduled for March 27-29, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed to start after April 21,...

This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 1/3/15 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.

Market will resolve to yes if Waymo features in a Saturday Night Live skit in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified...

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve...

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 17-18, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on March 18, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise,...

The market resolves YES if Elon Musk wins the Nobel Peace Prize (or shares it with some other entitie(s)) in 2025.

Otherwise, the market resolves NO.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch..

Unconfirmed reports have surfaced suggesting that listening devices were discovered in the Oval Office, specifically within the President's Resolute Desk, leading to its removal for a detailed security scan. These reports have stirred speculation and...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”..

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,...

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market...

This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in February 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and March 31, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's...

The Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongnam Province.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the...

This question resolves as YES if, before the January 1st 2027, a meme generated by artificial intelligence gains significant recognition and viral status, comparable to the widespread influence and shareability of popular memes created by humans. The...

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Resolves according to Forbes' Real Time Billionaire List at the end of the day on 2025-12-31

The fertilization must occur via sex and the baby must be born via somewhat normal childbirth rather than a cesarean section. The process must be relatively safe and not highly experimental, and it must be cheap enough to be available to the middle...

China appears to be at the forefront of some aspects of biotechnology, being the first in the world both to successfully clone primates and to successfully gene edit humans.

ways this can YES:

it's already implemented and in effect, for at least a month, with no set plans to remove it. ballot measures to change/remove/delete it are allowed to be happening in the future, as long as the de facto state of the existing...