3%
Very unlikely

South Tyrol is a region located in the northern part of Italy. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the region was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, after World War I, the Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye (1919) transferred control...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 64
10%
Unlikely

Founded in 2018, 50by40 is an organisation with the mission to achieve

A 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
66%
Likely

PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 94
87%
Likely

Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35
60%
Likely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will China reach net zero carbon emissions?

China's CO2 emissions in 2019 were 9.44 billion tons, higher than any other nation, including the US (5.63 billion tons) and the EU (3.97 billion tons). ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107
35%
Unlikely

Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost $11bn annually. The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 20
38%
Unlikely

This question is modeled on this Metaculus question, but asks instead about the possibility of Trump's removal from primary election ballots.

The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification Clause" or...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 27
80%
Likely

On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
75%
Likely

related question on Metaculus:

  • If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?

Starlink as been speaking openly about an IPO. This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 182
17%
Unlikely

From ‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth, Science, 02 August 2023:

Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 25
24%
Unlikely

The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508..

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
47%
About Even

Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a period of transition in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 85
90%
Very likely

The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, introduces deep learning,

This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 525
95%
Very likely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $30k
51%
Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive
30%
More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%
10%
Less than 48.0%
7%
Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive
2%
More than 66.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 22
Forecasters: 13
10%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

One of the key aims of India’s Human Spaceflight Programme is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 195
25%
Unlikely

Norway is a member of the European Economic Area, but not a member of the EU. Norway held two referrendums on whether to join the EU, in 1972 and in 1994, which were rejected by 53.5% and 52.2% of the vote, respectively.

Following the war in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 164
34%
Unlikely

Wikipedia describes the European Army as follows:

The European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 123
47%
About Even

Elon Musk is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 513
75%
Likely

Russia is a mixed economy, meaning it has both state-owned and private enterprises. It is based largely on the export of natural resources, such as oil, gas, and metals, which have historically accounted for a significant portion of the country's...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48

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