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Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2026-02-10

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.8k
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-20?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 20, 2026 If Stade Brestois 29 wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-04

Market resolves yes if Zelenskyy is still the president of Ukraine while Putin is not president of Russia anymore, and no if it's the other way around.

Last updated: 2025-05-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 83
Volume: M9.4k
Will the Inflation Reduction Act be repealed in 2025?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-21

Resolves Yes if the majority of the allocated funds are repealed

Related: @/ahalekelly/will-the-chips-act-be-repealed-in-2

Last updated: 2025-05-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M2.9k
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate are scheduled to take place in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

From NATO's site:

  • In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September...
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 257
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Hyperliquid (HYPEUSDT) between November 24, 2025, 16:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $31k
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Resolves positively if Marcus (or someone else fulfilling his role) can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which a leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.

This...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 348
Volume: M124k
In 2028, will at least 3.5m (1/100) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
68%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Copy of the linked market but with 10x the scale (1% of Americans rather than 0.1%)

Also this market has a clarification: this CAN close early if the criteria is met earlier.

Otherwise we will use the same data sources as the linked market..

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.7k
What will happen next with regard to the price of bitcoin?
47%
It will "close" above $120,000 between 7 February 2025 and 8 August 2025
37%
None of these will occur before 9 August 2025
15%
It will "close" above $120,000 before 7 February 2025
< 1%
It will "close" below $30,000 between 7 February 2025 and 8 August 2025
< 1%
It will "close" below $30,000 before 7 February 2025
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 435
Forecasters: 48
Will Microsoft reach $563 in February?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during February 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $735
Will Calcio Padova vs. Carrarese Calcio end in a draw?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 10, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.8k
Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5
74%
Over
27%
Under
Last updated: 2026-02-10

In the upcoming La Liga game between Girona FC and FC Barcelona, scheduled for February 16 at 3:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Girona FC and FC Barcelona combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is less...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.0k
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5
51%
Over
50%
Under
Last updated: 2026-02-10

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for February 9 at 9:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Cavaliers and Nuggets combine to score 241 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 241, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.3k
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC....

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $759k
Will Bri McNees get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-10

Love is Blind: Season 10 is scheduled to premiere on February 11, 2026 on Netflix.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person featured in Love Is Blind Season 10 becomes engaged to another participant. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No..

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-19

in the areas of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Economics or Peace.

Last updated: 2025-03-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 111
Volume: M11k
Will Elon Musk be given a Cabinet position by the end of June 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk is officially nominated or appointed to a U.S. Cabinet position by June 30, 23:59 PST, 2025, as confirmed by a credible and verifiable source, such as an official government announcement or a major news...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 89
Volume: M34k
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka AOC) be charged with a federal crime by February 1, 2029?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

This resolves YES if and only if federal prosecutors formally indict AOC on one or more federal charges no later than February 1, 2029.

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.4k
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2070, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 53
Volume: M15k
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-10

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Classifications of an incident...

Last updated: 2026-02-10
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.4k

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