The international energy agency and others predicts that global carbon emissions will peak in 2025 and then start to decline. Do you think they're right? Will the world energy transition gain enough traction for this to become a reality? This bet...

This market resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin is more then or equal to $120,000 at any point on or before June 19, 2025, on Coinbase. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Bitcoin has shown significant volatility throughout its history, with previous...

Resolves according to the Wikipedia page

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auslandseins%C3%A4tze_der_Bundeswehr which tracks abroad missions of the Bundeswehr.

Resolves Yes if there is

an ongoing mission (table "Laufende Einsätze") in Ukraine with...

On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, was convicted of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.

President Biden said "Yes" to both questions...

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

This market predicts whether an Oscar nomination or winner film released before December 10, 2025, will depict Toronto as itself. A 'major film' is defined as a feature-length production with wide theatrical release or significant streaming platform...

Resolves based on the which team advances.

Eintracht Frankfurt: Yes

Tottenham: No

This market shall resolve to Yes if, subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, the Federal Government is in what is described by media sources, determined by PredictIt to be reliable, as a full or partial government...

Both House and Senate. For any reason.

Found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Changes_in_membership

January 3, 2023 – January 3, 2025

Weights.

The arbiter of truth is https://killedbygoogle.com/

An "LLM-based product" is any product with LLMs as a central feature, such as Gemini.

A product that incidentally uses LLM features doesn't count (e.g. if gmail spam filtering used LLMs, then...

https://www.ft.com/content/a0dfedd1-5255-4fa9-8ccc-1fe01de87ea6

OpenAI is alleging that DeepSeek is a distillation of the GPT models. Will this become the consensus view?

This question resolved as “yes” if I judge the majority of credible...

https://tridenstechnology.com/tesla-sales-statistics/

According to the link above, which claims to pull data from Tesla's shareholder decks, Tesla produced 1,773,443 vehicles in 2024, which was down 4% from 2023. Will there be another drop or will...

If Ross' sentence is a guest on the Joe Rogan Podcast and the Podcast is publicly available, and is published before 11:41pm EST on January 21st 2026, than this market Resolves YES.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

https://www.reddit..

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/qzfXxkHrIBM?si=LNXsM7h84rQd6OFl)Resolves Yes if the words are said in order by any character, in any context. Can resolve early if said in a trailer. Resolves no if not said, or if no live action Zelda movie releases by...

Resolves YES if it’s #1 on https://chat.lmsys.org .

Ties for first place will resolve YES.

This question will resolve as YES if a major world war involving at least 3 of the world's 5 most powerful military nations (USA, Russia, China, UK, and France) breaks out and results in the loss of at least 1 million lives before the end of 2050....

Resolves YES if the winner of 2026 FIFA World Cup is Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, Spain, or England.

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15537/new-nuclear-armed-state-by-2030/

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear...