This is a permanent market which trades on sentiment. The aim is to sell your stock when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again once it's over-corrected to the other side. Essentially, it's meant to function like a...

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, born 19 June 1964, is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as Secretary of State for Foreign and...

If they are married or engaged at that point, resolves yes.

if they break up, resolves no.

Exactly the same as https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-openai-anthropic-or-google-dee-z5xkbux22u by @JacobPfau, except only for OpenAI. I'll defer to Jacob's resolution of his own market.

Other markets:

Anthropic: https://manifold..

Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...

Resolves Yes if Manifold are still functioning by 2030 Resolves No if Manifold became defunct before that

Don't ask me how I would be able to resolve No if Manifold has became defunct

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the French government officially recognizes Palestine as a sovereign state on or before December 31, 2025. This includes any formal declaration, diplomatic announcement, or legal action that...

Resolves YES if either of the following:

The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

At least 1,000 military personnel or at least 1 tank from the...

(2025 included)

Will I live to celebrate my 1000th birthday?

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te attends the inauguration mass of the next Pope. Attendance is defined as Lai Ching-te being physically present at the mass. If he does not attend, the market...

Quantum computing has the possibility to break encryption as we know it. The widely used encryption methods, including RSA, AES, ECC, SHA-256, and HMAC, face unprecedented challenges.

This question resolves YES if, by 2030, quantum computing...

If Trump does not become the next president this resolves NO

It is not necessary for the revenue to be wholly replaced by tariffs, but abolished means (federal) income taxes are completely removed.

Must be an actual race.

Should be reasonably believable it was worn for the entire duration.

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

Resolves yes if by the end of 2029 at least one biological human has "cat girl ears". The ears must appear catlike (or at least cat girl like) and grant similar hearing to cats. This includes the ability to move to detect where sounds are coming from...

The question resolves YES if according to two acceptable sources listed below there has been a presidential election in Ukraine before, again according to two acceptable sources from those listed below, there is a ceasefire in force between Russia...

Resolves by polling on Jan 1, 2050 whatever superintelligences I think are trustworthy, or polling Manifold or the rationalist community if there are none. I will ask the question in the title and resolve to the majority opinion.

Most countries worldwide have increased their focus on tackling climate change, pledging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increasing subsidies for renewable energies, and further public policy aimed at climate. The three major trading...

As of the launch of this question, Egypt made its most recent currency devaluation March 2024 as part of a deal reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and concerns remain that there could be another as discussions between the Egyptian...