Eliezer Yudkowsky is a computer scientist and science fiction author. He is best known for his theories about AI safety. In recent years, he has expressed the view that, unless breakthroughs in AI safety are made, literally every single human will...

Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2035, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator. This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people...

This is tracked by Our World In Data's Democracy Data Explorer which uses data from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and currently lists the US central estimate at 0.82. 0.80 is the lowest central estimate for the US since 1975.

If Trump...

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee or has a ballot-listed...

Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2030. Has to be unaided by other tech. Could be an accident, ie the falling on the person. Must be a humanoid.

Resolves as YES if Xi Jinping is the leader of China on December 31st 2026.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-193ddd0899e4

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-f4bb79318ae8...

As of today he has appeared or will appear in three video game movies: Steve in Minecraft, Bowser in Super Mario Bros, and Claptrap in Borderlands.

Link: https://twitter.com/discussingfilm/status/1760001737962991858

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Will the global GDP growth rate for 2025 fall below 2.5%?

Resolution will be based on the first official IMF World Economic Outlook report published in 2026 that reports the final 2025 global GDP growth figure.

References:

IMF World Economic...

I will be using the Manifold leaderboard to measure the traders, most likely.

Here is an auto updating page with daily traders.

P.S. Please check the latest version of the leaderboard available at this link, or contact me, before resolving this...

I somewhat impulsively picked a new search engine last night after reading about how Google deliberately worsened their search results to cause repeat searching thereby increasing total searches and thereby ad revenue.

https://www.wheresyoured..

Will a Large Language Model / Foundational Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed publication by the end of 2025? Preprints on arXiv / other preprint servers do not count as peer-reviewed. Furthermore, the conference or journal needs to be a...

Prices taken from google. If SBF dies automatically resolves no

Resolves positively if, by market close, Manifold Markets is acquired by a company or individual. Requires a sale of at least 50% of company equity for a positive resolution.

See here for reporting on the proposal, and see page 80 of this document for the full text:

Any firm using computing resources, whether owned by the firm or leased from others, to mine digital assets would be subject to an excise tax equal to 30...

Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• When will the US break up Meta Platforms?

Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent...

Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?

Will we have a proof that an explicit 2-symbol 6-state Turing Machine is the machine that runs for BB(6) steps before halting?

Knowing the exact value of BB(6) might be challenging; it is a very large number, at least 10↑↑15. It would be impossible...

Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

Will resolve true if there is a company valued at $1b dollars on December 31st 2026, which only has one meaningful human employee. If it has human contractors doing a total of more than 40 hours per week, it doesn't count.