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BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves
If @NathanpmYoung asks Elon Musk on a date, to dinner, to attend an event, or to leave a formal role (with the US government or a company) by the end of 2025, or I see credible evidence that he's already done so, the question resolves yes. Otherwise...
According to the CDC, will there be more than 1,000 confirmed cases of H5N1 Bird Flu in humans in the United States by the end of 2025?
Background: H5N1 bird flu has recently gained attention in the US with 66 confirmed human cases in 2024. Most...
Resolves as YES if we discover strong evidence of past or present extra-terrestrial life before January 1st 2039.
This question includes but is not limited to the detection of biosignatures/technosignatures in our solar system, around other stars or...
[image]Resolves YES if my net worth is greater than Ṁ30,000 at 18:00 PDT on April 5th. Seems unlikely, but lofty goals can lead to great achievements
10,000 casualties or more within a month constitutes a major war. To make it more clear, a month is a calendar month, not a 30 day period.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to...
This question is inspired by the linked Long Bet between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.
The bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards.
"Where does 1.8 percent fit into...
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➡️ check my other Bitcoin market and Tomek's Specials! 😎
Lots of judgment calls involved in this, which I will resolve in good faith. (And I won’t bet on this.)
Would-be strawberry man Riley Coyote commented on Sam Altman's post, asking "can I tell them about the thing?" Sam replied "which thing?" (possibly implying that Sam knows Riley and that Riley knows some internal information)
Further down the...
IMO 2025 is scheduled to take place between July 10 and July 20 this year. This market asks: will (at least some) members of the public be able, once the problems are posted online, to use an AI model to produce solutions that would win gold at the...
This market resolves according to the debt total listed in the description of this market: @/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
If at some point before the end of this month the 'total' number listed is two million or more, this market...
Cost Savings: AI chatbots could save the call center industry a significant amount in labor costs per year. This is a major incentive for businesses to invest in AI technology.
Technological Advancements: Advances in natural language processing and...
This prediction market focuses on whether the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, will be officially revealed by December 31, 2025. The identity of Nakamoto has remained a mystery since the publication of the...
Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and...
Given the escalating trade tensions orginiating with the US, and specifically with China, with the US recently imposing a 104% tariff on Chinese imports, there is speculation that the US may extend tariffs to other countries as part of its trade...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns. Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season. It...
Clarifications:
MIRI: Refers to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
Single Year: The funding amount must be received within one calendar year (January 1 to December 31).
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