Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...

This concerns the Fall 2026 enrollment, which implies deadlines like November 2025 for Early Decision, and January/February 2026 for Regular Decision.

Resolves as YES, if, for the Bachelor-level admissions for 2026, at least one of those things...

Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?

Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.

Three...

Prediction made by etymologynerd

Context: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5vt6JViotl/?igsh=aGFtNHl4ZWI0Z3Nm

This is obviously Photoshopped, but will he do it for real like when he bought Twitter?

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Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the first human sets foot on Mars.

Question will resolved YES, if the final chapter is released before 1st of July 2025.

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official ceasefire announcement regarding Gaza is made by any of the involved parties—such as Israel, Hamas, or recognized international mediators—between May 1, 2025, and May 31, 2025,...

Will the average price of Grade A Large eggs in U.S. cities reach or exceed $10.00 per dozen according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data published on FRED?

Resolution source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

As of December...

Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of...

At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies. I will try to...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/business/spacex-hubble-space-telescope-nasa-polaris-mission-scn/index.html

Resolves yes if a SpaceX rocket (in collaboration with nasa or otherwise) successfully launches with the aim of docking with Hubble. This...

Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its Person of the Year, who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past,...

See base market: @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test...

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk provides financial support to any campaign or organized effort aimed at removing Donald Trump from office. This includes, but is not limited to, funding political action committees...

if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or...

Currently the Democratic Party controls the Senate with a 51-49 majority (including independents who caucaus with them). However, in 2024 the map of seats up for reelection suggests that Republicans will regain control, and future election maps...

Big city in this question would be over 150.000 population.

Special cities like Melilla or Ceuta in Spain or similar would not count.

Only countries part of EU in 2023 counts, if Turkey is added to EU it would not count

Semaglutide (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug approved in June 2021 which has demonstrated 15-18% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection..

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Will a Large Language Model / Foundational model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025? Recently, ChatGPT provided advice which likely saved the life of a person’s dog: https://nypost..