Will resolve positively if by 2040 Catholic church officially reconizes that at least some AIs may have souls.
In the context of this question, AI includes any sort of entities executed on a traditional or quantum computer, including ML models, code...
Will resolve as yes with in the month if his net worth hits 1 trillion USD (paper value).
End date is August 15th 2033 ... if no one/anyone else other than Elon (Satoshi doesn't count) becomes a trillionare this will resolve to no.
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Resolves Yes if quantum computers are used by at least 25% of Fortune 500 companies by 2030. The use does not have to be expensive, the companies just have to own and at least be attempting to utilize them.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 10, 12:00 PM ET and March 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and...
Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators). Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game. It doesn't get...
Resolving negatively if Russia is dissolved, united with any other country under any other name, renamed, or not a member of the UN.
I will use the English names of member states of the UN for resolution. If, by then, the United Nations no longer...
If the date on which we get official generations from GPT-5 (this is not a typo) comes before 2027, I will resolve this positively.
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may...
Municipal elections to elect the members of the Amsterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Amsterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad van...
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes with the best regular-season record in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference standings.
This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the 2025–26 NBA...
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...
This resolves true if in any year up to and including 2040, the net migration into the UK is negative, which means more people left than came to live in the UK.
When an OpenAI model with model id matching one of the GPT-5 model ids is officially released to @Mira by start of March 2025, resolves to @Mira 's credence that Gary Marcus is, and has always been, GPT-5. My credence would currently round to NO.
If...
This market will resolve to the club that records the most total goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League competition.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined...
A "ban" isn't just "restrictions," but "it is illegal to own, sell, make, and/or distribute pornography" in a state.
(This question is using the numbering scheme that counts Grover Cleveland twice, e.g. Trump would be 45, Biden would be 46, etc.)
The president must be a member of the party at the time of inauguration.
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Lex Fridman has returned from Russia before January 1st 2026. I the context of this question, "returning from Russia" is defined as returning to a Western country.
If there is no evidence that Lex...
This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest points per-game average of any qualified player.
In the event of a tie for the highest points per-game average, this market will resolve...
Currently, cosmological simulations such as IllustrisTNG or Eagle are run by solving (magneto)hydrodynamical equations numerically. By the end of 2027 will at least one of the leading projects of the time (by number of citations and based on my...
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