Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Keir Starmer holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom without interruption until the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at...

This market is quite similar to the following market. However, instead of focusing on the papers, it focuses a bit more on the practicality aspect by considering a mixture of the most commonly used models and the SOTA models at the end of 2026.

I am...

MrBeast surpassed T-Series to become the most subscribed YouTube channel in June 2024 with 268 million subscribers. That has increased to 326 million subscribers as of Nov 2024.

This question resolves YES if the MrBeast YouTube channel is surpassed...

Mini-series:

North Korea before 2024 North Korea before 2025

North Korea before 2026

Russia before 2024

Russia before 2025

Russia before 2026

United States before 2024

United States before 2025

United States before 2026

If there are an even number of traders with shares, and the two middle numbers are a and b, then the median is considered to be prime iff the interval [a, b] contains a prime.

I am open to different sources of data on this one; I think they should agree, but I will happily argue with anyone who has a different source until we get it resolved.

More precisely, my question here is: Will the U.S. obesity rate be more than 1...

What Do You Know

Just based on my subjective opinion, will any foundational model (e.g. a top AI for general reasoning), at the end of next year, be able to consistently produce good songs that make the songs currently generated by services like Suno, Udio, and...

If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?

Carbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:

[image]I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2...

Resolves yes if before 2027, a neural net with <10B parameters achieves all of: >75% on GPQA, >80% on SWE-bench verified, and >95% on MATH

Arbitrary scaffolding allowed (retrieval over fixed DB is ok), no talking with other AI, no internet access....

Resolves YES if a general election occurs using any voting system which is not the traditional First Past the Post.

Looking for growth UK is a campaign group supported by figures across labour, conservative, and reform parties. They've drafted a National Priority Infrastructure Bill aimed at simplifying the construction of critical infrastructure like nuclear...

Unconfirmed reports have surfaced suggesting that listening devices were discovered in the Oval Office, specifically within the President's Resolute Desk, leading to its removal for a detailed security scan. These reports have stirred speculation and...

Stream link: https://twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Resolves NO if the stream is inactive for over 10 days, unless an announced return date within 3 months is given, or an implied 3 months if no exact date is specified. If an announced return date...

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that...

This is a follow up market for this question below but with a longer timeline: https://manifold.markets/long/will-any-restaurant-serves-hybridri

Background reading:

https://www.cell.com/matter/pdf/S2590-2385(24)00016-X.pdf

https://www.science..

Resolves as YES if at least 2 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031.

Different number of robots:

@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e5827a19aecb (this...

Resolution criteria: a public source (Twitter) which states that they have been on at least 1 date together

Resolves 'Yes' if a foldable phone designed and sold by Apple is available to purchase by consumers in North America before January 1st, 2028.

(Pre-orders would not count.)

The Standard Model of particle physics is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions in a compact way.

One of its features...