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Resolves YES if ever true, otherwise final ratio between valuations.
Last reported at $500M / $30B (1.7%)
Turkey has been applying to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.
More recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has linked...
Actual estimate: 0.05%
This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). "These estimates should not be taken very...
In an article featured on corepay.net titled 'Cashless Societies: Which Countries Are Making The Switch?', it highlights the global trend towards cashless economies. Many nations are embracing digital payment systems, with Sweden leading the way,...
Right now, Manifold is mostly rationalist/tech/EA/grey tribe aligned. Will that change, such that the people in charge and the social norms being enforced are significantly different? A few examples of scenarios that would resolve this YES:
EA loses...
According to official data published on an official web-site. For example, at the "U.S. State Life Tables" https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm
In 2019 the highest life expectancy was in the states of Hawaii (80.9 years), California...
The Collatz conjecture is one of the most famous unsolved problems in mathematics. The conjecture asks whether repeating two simple arithmetic operations will eventually transform every positive integer into 1. It concerns sequences of integers in...
Resolves to YES if on August 1 Claude.ai and/or the Claude app have a global memory feature, meaning that it can meaningfully remember prior conversations, similar or superior in principle to the way ChatGPT has it on 5/28/25.
Resolves to NO if it...
ispace is a private spaceflight company. The SERIES 2 lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon. Their previous attempt to land on the moon,...
Will I have >5 minute conversational video call with a fully synthetic AI character or digital avatar, with synced audio and video, which is somewhat lifelike (even if not perfect) and with conversational latency roughly comparable to human...
It has been reported that the Tate brothers are en route to Florida from Romania after their travel restrictions were lifted.
About a week ago, reports said that someone within the Trump administration was pushing Romania for their release.
This...
According to my current understanding, the California 'builder's remedy' policy has opened up a much more permissive permitting regime for residential buildings in many cities, as a result of the state finding those cities' ordinary rules to be out...
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will at least 6 out of the following 10 criteria be met by January 20, 2029?
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Pluto, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2040. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Pluto must occur within a distance of no more than 1...
There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists. Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of...
Link: https://store.steampowered.com/app/1729160/Heartseeker Heartseeker is a short game my team released on Steam in Oct 2021. As of making this question (Apr 2024) we've sold ~640 units with 100% positive reviews. Heartseeker sells for $2USD and...
I have been browsing CL Missed Connections for months. As the contemporary folk poetry of our age, I would like one to be written for me. To this end, I have been chatting up one stranger per day. This generally happens in either Berkeley or SF..
Original title: Will Democrats lose control of the senate in 2024, then regain it in 2026?
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2026.
Questions with the same...
Will there be a "flippening" between Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) by the end of 2025? Dominance as measured by https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts
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