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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk,...
Update 2025-03-18 (PST): • Arrest without an indictment qualifies as a YES.
• Detainment is required for a YES; if Trump issues a bench warrant but does not detain, it resolves as a NO.
• If someone is formally charged but not arrested by the end...
The REAL ID Act, enacted in 2005, establishes minimum security standards for state-issued driver's licenses and identification cards. The enforcement deadline has been postponed multiple times, with the current deadline set for May 7, 2025. This...
This is inclusive of any new models OpenAI unveils in 2024, but the question resolves to "yes" if Grok beats OpenAI at any time in 2024 against their current state of the art model.
Related Questions on Metaculus:
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities...
Resolution will be based on Nintendo Investor Relations data.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html
As of the March 31st, 2023 update to their numbers, the Switch has sold 125.62 million units so far.
The current...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information...
The second round municipal election to elect the municipal council of Strasbourg is scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026; the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the...
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Bill Clinton testifies, in testimony that is publicly available by the End Date listed below, that he personally witnessed Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein interact together in person. PredictIt’s...
Resolves using similar resolution criteria to @/IsaacKing/before-the-end-of-2035-will-transra.
Same as this market, but for AI that gets gold on the 2023, 2024, 2025, or 2026 IMO.
Will resolve true if there is a company valued at $1b dollars on December 31st 2030, which only has one meaningful human employee. If it has human contractors doing a total of more than 40 hours per week, it doesn't count.
Will The New York Times Win A Lawsuit Again OpenAI & Microsoft?
How will this resolve?
YES : NYT Wins In Court Or Gets An Open Settlement Agreement.
NO : NYT Case Gets Tossed Out Or They Lose.
N/A : Settlement is private.
When will this resolve...
Resolves NO if Brock Purdy has not won a super bowl at the time he announces his retirement
This market predicts whether the margin of victory in Poland's presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025, will be less than 1%. The first round held on May 18, 2025, resulted in a narrow lead for Rafał Trzaskowski over Karol Nawrocki. The market...
In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 4 at 7:30 PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Charlotte FC" if Charlotte FC win the game by 2 or more goals.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Union".
If the game is postponed, this...
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump resigns as US President before the end of his second term on 20 Jan 2029.
This question resolves NO if on 21 Jan 2029, Donald Trump has not resigned, or if before that time, Donald Trump has ceased to be...
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