This market shall resolve to the first year in which it becomes legal for same-sex couples to marry in all prefectures of Japan.

^

Close date updated to 2028-12-31 11:59 pm

This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 is worth >13,767, and NO otherwise.

This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining...

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Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 298)

Current totals: 152 heads vs 145 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

Yesterday’s flip: NO

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 = heads

2...

This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.

The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for...

Background Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to a ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for allegedly abusing political power during his presidency. The "Ficha Limpa" (Clean...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between May 3, 2025, and May 3, 2026, Donald Trump publicly refers to himself as a "king" in any form of communication, including but not limited to social media posts, speeches, interviews,...

Will resolve to YES when the following resolution source is no longer available.

While much of the current media coverage about the future of cars focuses on the adoption of battery-electric vehicles, lesser known (but probably just as important) is Porsche's efforts to make a carbon-negative "e-fuel." If successfully...

Resolves YES if:

China makes a declaration of war by 2030.

Resolves NO if:

China doesn't make a declaration of war by 2030.

If for some reason China invades without declaring war, I will still resolve NO to remove ambiguity.

Context: https://nitter.net/dieworkwear/status/1931808967363289500#m

https://nitter.net/avidseries/status/1932099989922095608?t=okXsa8mVuBEc0gFq8CrwLQ&s=09

Resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for president in 2028

Resolve No otherwise Resolves NA if the presidential election was not held in 2028

According to the United Nations Development Program's 2019 Human Development Index, the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.

Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by May 31, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of Canada's federal elections held on April 28, 2025. Public questioning includes statements made...

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Inspired by this tweet:

tweet

Help predict whether Extropic AI will successfully deliver "functional silicon thermodynamic chips to customers in 2025." Resolution will be based on public announcements from Extropic AI or credible sources confirming...

This question will be evaluated when this Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ is resolved.

At that time, I will resolve the market to YES if the organization(s) that were responsible...

If it's rated at least a six on the democracy index by the Economist Intelligence Unit, resolves YES.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu?time=latest

If the Economist Intelligence Unit ceases to function I will choose another...