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Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
74%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation,...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2014, liraglutide was approved as a drug for weight loss by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015. It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 688
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.

This...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.7k
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
76%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $959
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.

The "exploitation purposes" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex work that the trafficked persons performed or were intended to perform.

Feb 3, 10:59pm: Will...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 3.4k
Volume: M2730k
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?
82%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $44
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ConsenSys (the parent company of MetaMask) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $209
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Will Alex DeBrincat win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Hart Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.9k
Will we see someone live to 120 years old by 2030?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Here is a list of the oldest living people: https://lottie.org/carecollective/oldest-people-in-the-world/

Will we see anyone (not just someone from that list) have their 120th birthday by the end of the year 2030?

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M2.6k
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-22?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 22, 2026 If Sunderland AFC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $124k
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

Definitions and Criteria [please read carefully]:

  1. "AlphaFold-like system"

    An AI system that uses deep learning to predict protein structures or design novel proteins with accuracy comparable to or exceeding AlphaFold 2. This includes...

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M9.6k
Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2035 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M2.9k
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
51%
Up
50%
Down
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

By January 1st, 2027, will any of the goods in the 2024 CPI basket (excepting shelter, health care, education, and energy) be subject to explicit U.S. nationwide price controls or rationing?

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M15k
Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which show this update...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 27?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.7k
CSUN Matadors vs. Long Beach State Beach: O/U 158.5
76%
Over
25%
Under
Last updated: 2026-02-22

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for February 21 at 9:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the CSUN Matadors and Long Beach State Beach combine to score 159 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 159, this...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.6k
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-02-22?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 22, 2026 If Sheffield Wednesday FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $145k
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-22

This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals.

If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”.

If multiple...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Will Donald Trump visit West Virginia in 2026?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-22

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as...

Last updated: 2026-02-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $60

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