Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?
Question description
This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies to the 'Government Debt Theory' of inflation.
A governmental Debt Crisis occurs when a government finds itself unable to pay back its debt. This famously happened to Greece starting in 2009, and to Latin America in the 1980s. Though fears of a Debt Crisis resurface regularly in the US, it has not happened yet.
A likely consequence and reaction to a Debt Crisis in the US would be dramatic spending cuts, to balance the budget.
The current US President is Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Democrats have a reputation for being less fiscally conservative than Republicans, so this question asks:
Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 186 |
Capture
*This question is linked to a fortified essay by Arnold Kling on two competing theories of inflation. The resolution of this question is meant to support or undermine his preferred theory. Read the essay to learn more about how this question applies...
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