Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
74%
Likely
Yes

Question description

Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by several orders of magnitude in the past several decades. Over 1 million Americans have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.

Many concerns have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.

Note: I am using "DNA data", "genomics data", "genetic data" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts148

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74%
Likely

Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by several orders of magnitude in the past several decades. Over 1 million Americans have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.

Many...

Last updated: 2024-05-09
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 148

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