Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including Kinmen and Matsu. Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and 210 km for Matsu. Kinmen is 132 km², more than 10x the size of Matsu (10 km²). Map highlighting Kinmen (note use of "Quemoy," another common rendering in English sources): https://cdn.britannica.com/29/247029-050-4F923DFF/Locator-map-Quemoy-Island.jpg

Attention has historically focused on these islands during periods of tension between the People's Republic of China and ROC. The PRC shelled both islands in 1958.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts17

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33%
Unlikely

Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including Kinmen and Matsu. Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and...

Last updated: 2024-04-27
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 17

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