Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?
Question description
As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of intense conflict and humanitarian crisis, primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to over 1,400 fatalities and numerous hostages, prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area. In previous wars Israel engaged in warfare with up to five Arab nations. At the moment, however, it is unclear and unlikely that neighbouring Arab countries will join the fighting, having already shown unwillingness to take refugees.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 345 |
Capture
As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of intense conflict and humanitarian crisis, primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on...
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