Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?
• When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?

This question makes use of the background material this previous question, lightly edited.

The first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.

There are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf">Artemis program</a>. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:

<ul> <li>The Artemis project includes a <a href="https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/">lunar base camp</a>.</li> <li>ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism.</li> <li>Joseph Silk suggested to build a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08941-8">crewed radiotelescope installation</a> on the far side of the Moon.</li> <li><a href="about:blank">The International Lunar Research Station</a> (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045.</li> <li>SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for <a href="https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/moon/index.html">landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence</a> there.</li> </ul>