Will North Korea produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?

In January 2021, Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un set several goals for the nation in his Five-Year Plan, including:

The basic tasks facing the building materials industry during the new five-year plan period is to attain the goal of producing 8 million tons of cement and ensure self-sufficiency of the finishing materials.

It is necessary to renovate the existing cement factories and, at the same time, build new large-capacity, up-to-date cement factories in the areas with favorable conditions for materials and electricity supply and transport, and thus further expand the cement production capacity of the country.

Kim also made the goal of building 50,000 apartments in Pyongyang and 25,000 in the Komdok area before 2026.

In May 2021, writers at 38North expressed doubts about these goals, saying,

[...] as of now, the industry is not likely to become a cornerstone of the North Korean economy. The current border closure and lack of hard currency make it difficult for the country to import key materials for expanding the industry in a meaningful way, and cement production is unlikely to reach sufficient quality for export anytime soon.

They offer a deep analysis of North Korean cement production in a series of articles: [1] [2] [3]

The (South Korean) Bank of Korea offers some historical data on NK's cement production:

| Year | Cement Production (Million Tons) | | -- | -- | | 2011 | 6.452 | | 2012 | 6.446 | | 2013 | 6.6 | | 2014 | 6.675 | | 2015 | 6.697 | | 2016 | 7.077 | | 2017 | 6.838 | | 2018 | 5.832 | | 2019 | 5.604 | | 2020 | 5.685 |