Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - massive solar storms, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to this study, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. Such sudden electrical blackouts may threaten food production.